Tuesday, March 18, 2014

The 95% Okinawan Independence Theory Money Changes Everything!

The 95% Okinawan Independence Theory Money Changes Everything!

Recently I was told by some Okinawan activists that 95% Okinawans want independence. Outright independence, not just autonomy. They want a clean break from Tokyo.

But as we see, evidence is scant. There is little sign of independence activism that point to such numbers.

Why is this so? I suspect it is not because Okinawans do not want independence. The reason I see is they have almost given up hope.

Back in the sixties and seventies, there were massive protest. However over the years many Okinawans feel this is a lost cause. They think they are overwhelmed by political and Economic Intimidation from Tokyo and Washington.

Now this is some forty odd years later and the younger generations don't know what their parents struggle and fight for during those years. As in other countries, these younger generations are the smartphone generations and are more distracted by computer games, social networking than doing the hard job of fighting for their independence.

But in any case they must have being instilled knowledge of independence fight by their parents and as they grow older they understand the importance to fight for their own destiny. But the question have always being economic isn't it?

How do want fight for independence without money? There must be money to help measure the true feelings of Okinawans. Money to help them express themselves. There are many poor Okinawans. With almost the highest unemployment rate in Japan this can only mean there are many Okinawans with no money. With no money they basically depend on handouts from friends, and relatives as well as basic government financial support. There is hardly any money for them to go from point A to point B if they want to do something like show support in a demonstration for independence. This then give an example of a group of Okinawans who may support independence but are not counted.

In order to count them, money is needed to help provide free transportation to bring them to an independence rally I am pretty sure the true number of people wishing to become independent is very very high They need at least two things: .. Hope and Money .

This is not to say money should be used to buy Okinawan dignity. They should decide independence on their own free will. Money is just an enabler to help flush out their true feelings.

Hope will be rekindled after they see more people join independence rally. This is basically natural Herd Instinct. Many people are like sheeple, they just follow the crowd. In this case, when the independence movement grows bigger, those on the sideline will join too. It is a self feeding flame that will swell to a giant inferno. This will truly show the will of the Okinawans for independence.

I believe the latent wish for independence is there among Okinawans. They just need a booster financing to fund the movement. If you are able and willing to support Okinawa independence please contact Yara to help fund his organization.

Meanwhile enjoy Cindy Lauper's song here.

http://youtu.be/3aK-UjR3Oj4

http://youtu.be/202o_JS7E04
This Is Wild!

Ukraine Crimea illustration: .. Just like Crimea, Okinawans are a distinct race, different from Yamato Japanese There is resentment from being governed by current government in Ukraine as their economic condition is a failure and seeking to be part of Russia is their best option. For Okinawans , you seek nobody, not China, not USA, but you stand on your own feet, like Taiwan, another island nation. You basically need to have a competitive currency of your own to help with exports. You don't need to depend on just tourism.

Crimea's Moscow-backed leaders declared an overwhelming 96.7% vote in favor of leaving Ukraine and being annexed by Russia in a referendum that Western powers said was illegal and will bring sanctions. Turnout was 83%

Okinawans can make such a statement too to be independent instead. Let's see what Tokyo do next. Once the will of the people have spoken, it will be very hard for Tokyo to ignore their will to leave even if DIET declare illegal. I think Tokyo will not dare to punish Okinawa economically though there may be short term threat. It will be disaster if Tokyo proceed to threaten Okinawa as Okinawans can threaten back to be part of China or US or whatever game she can play for leverage. In any case the international community will have a sympathetic ear for Okinawans and will make sure she does not fail economically.

If Tokyo continue to ignore Okinawan will, Okinawa should start to issue new currency and do own self border policing as first step of sovereignty. Jeitai should be forced out, road blockage, made unwelcomed.

http://www.uchinanchu.org/uchinanchu/history_reversion.htm

Visit site to make a donation.
http://www.bekkoame.ne.jp/i/a-001/

Many Okinawan Brainwashed With Fear About China Military Attack & Economic Consequences And The Autonomy Question

Many Okinawan Brainwashed With Fear About China Military Attack & Economic Consequences And The Autonomy Question

From my conversations it appears many, not all Okinawans are brainwashed into thinking China is a danger to their security. They are mistaken. Let me try to explain clearly below.

First question: Are you a Chinese agent? Hell No!

I am sure many people deliberately or from ignorance paint me as a Chinese agent. If you take the time to look around you will see I have no interest in siding with ANY country. For me Okinawa Independence is just a necessary step to bring Global Peace as the risk of war between China and Japan is very high with Jeitai in Naha and the smaller islands.

The driving motivation is my believe that Japanese leadership is unable to behave maturely and have to be constrained by US. Japanese leadership behavior in WWI, WWII, constant denials about Massacres, Comfort Women, this is not a mature country anybody can trust. Please be clear: .. I am not anti Japanese, I am anti Japanese leadership under LDP, Abe and his nationalists constituents There is no guarantee US can constrain Japan forever, thus removing Jeitai from Okinawa is necessary to defang Tokyo from military adventurism Remember I posted Jeitai if moved to Kyushu airbases makes it much harder for F15, even F35 to patrol Diaoyu / Senkaku due to range problem, so it is very problematic unless mid air refuelling and also carry less payload. Thus Tokyo insist on Naha and the smaller islands due to combat range considerations.

Briefly since Sept 2012 Japan have use intimidation, telling lies to hoodwink the public that China is the aggressor while she initiate the trouble and take very aggressive actions like sending eight fighter jets to intimidate a small Chinese propeller plane, forced a fire radar lock from Chinese destroyer on Jeitai navy ship only 2 km away near Miyako Strait and tell the world China is the aggressor. This is a setup I am exposing here as Japan do this in her home turf advantage. If Chinese navy don't warn off Japanese destroyer, it will be hit in less than 15 second given the short distance. The ADIZ by China in East China Sea last Nov followed by ten Japanese fighter jets with only two US jets. Furthermore Tokyo have plan to force down Chinese surveillance or military plane to land on the Miyako islands or other airstrips near Diaoyu / Senkaku. Luckily so far not yet implemented or this will surely start a war. I am saying Japan use aggressive tactics trying to intimidate China but will cause a war with her wrong headed aggressive stance. With the Nothing To Negotiate Stance over Diaoyu / Senkaku Islands, what do people expect China to do? Not coming to Diaoyu / Senkaku to assert sovereignty? So we are in this standoff today because of Tokyo's inflexible stance and aggressive behavior. Since Sept 2012 China have improve her navy and air force greatly making her more likely to react very strongly if Tokyo dare to do any foolish acts again. And of course if war breaks out, Okinawa will be caught in the middle. This then is going to be the price Okinawans have to pay for inaction.

Meanwhile as we can see Okinawa is caught in the middle and paying the price of near zero Chinese interest in her economy. I said in this world, it is the smaller countries like Okinawa ad Taiwanese people who holds the key to Global Peace but if they don't take action, it will be an uneasy poisoned atmosphere they have to live with forever. It is correct to say the bigger countries, be it US, China, Japan, they are all fearful of Taiwan, Okinawa if the locals have back bone and fight for their own rights and stay neutral. That is the only pathway for such small countries so as never to be militarily useful to any of them.

Okinawan relationship with China is clouded by politics and propaganda. This have serious consequence in the economic development of Okinawa.

From numerous observations and comments I learn many Okinawans have a Chinaphobia problem. What's that? That is a fancy word to describe a fear of the Chinese government. Okinawans fear China have ulterior motives to conquer their islands.

One can only ask why Okinawans got so brainwashed. Let me guess.
US and Japan are like tumor, having bases all over Okinawa. Now how do they keep their bases there in spite of Okinawans complaining about safety, loud noises, environmental damage? You guess it. One way is to divert attention towards the danger of Chinese invasion of their islands! This is classic psychological warfare and it is sad many unthinking Okinawans fall into this propaganda spread by Tokyo and US.

Some are just their own imagination of course, but there is no basis for their fear. There is no history of Chinese invasion into Okinawa.

There were two Chinese invasion of Japan but they were done by the Mongols who invaded and rule China for a few hundred years. So China herself was a victim of foreign invasion, at least a couple of times in recent history.

So I hope all Okinawans think clearer and don't fear a Chinese invasion. It won't happen anyway with US and Jeitai forces in Okinawa. If there is any war, it will happen over the seas and perhaps as part of Chinese Short Sharp War if there is surprise attack, it will be the Jeitai bases in Naha and elsewhere in the islands. This means people living in Naha just got to hope Chinese missiles are accurate enough not to stray and hit them.

At this stage China have 16 Beidou satellites out of 30 that is optimal for best accuracy. So the accuracy of targeting may not be as good now as say in 2020 when all are operational.

As I said many times, if the investment climate is not good, nobody overseas want to come to Okinawa to do business. You don't see hordes of foreigners from neighboring countries come to Okinawa to set up shop. Tokyo makes it hard deliberately I would say for Chinese business to come. They have to go to Fukuoka to do paperwork before coming to Okinawa. There is no Chinese consulate in Naha to facilitate trade from China. Evidence of lack of foreign investment can be seen with empty spaces in Nago and Naha FTZ Foreigners are just not interested under current Okinawa militarized atmosphere. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2002/09/13/national/okinawas-free-trade-zones-failing-to-attract - companies /

In order to get investments from China, I think Okinawa need to kick out the Jeitai, make Okinawa neutral. Only a neutral Okinawa will be an attractive place for business for people from Japan, China etc.

Furthermore Okinawa may need their own currency to be competitive. Okinawans probably don't need to import much stuff or travel abroad, so a weaker currency will improve Okinawan export advantage. Perhaps a starting currency pegged at 80% of the Yen will encourage more business to flow in from Tokyo and Beijing. Using Yen is not very competitive for Okinawan industries as Japan itself have being losing manufacturing jobs over the last couple of decade. I read Japan's manufacturing shrink from 15 million jobs to 10 millions roughly since 1992, so this can only be attributed to Yen value being too high. This was reason for Abenomics massive Yen printing to force down Yen value to improve export competitiveness. Okinawans can do it one better with their own fixed peg to Yen at 80% to start to ensure dynamic export advantage. Of course this is not etch in stone and should be revised over time to adapt to new situations.

Autonomy: Definition:
au · ton · o · my
noun \ O-Ta-nə-Me \
: The state of existing or acting separately from others
:. The power or right of a country, group, etc, to govern itself

The components are economic autonomy, military autonomy, legal / judiciary autonomy, civilian force autonomy, immigration border autonomy, cultural autonomy, currency / trade policies autonomy etc. I think Okinawa already have autonomy except for border and military aspect. I don't see what further improvements can be had for Okinawa without going full independence. Inaction equals current state of limbo, never a bright future, but no disastrous poverty either as Tokyo cannot afford a riot in Okinawa and have to send Yen down south annually to prop up the government.

There are talks of autonomy among Okinawans in lieu of outright independence. Let's examine what that means. Using Scotland as an example, she have her own Scottish Parliament (I am glad I saw that building while in Edinburgh 2009!) Governing all local issues in Scotland. Only finance and defence controlled by London. This is about same in Okinawa. Defense in Scotland under London, UK have nuclear sub bases, radar stations, air bases in Scotland. That is autonomy. Once independence, you can bet Scotland will kick out all these military bases. Without independence, just autonomy, foreign military bases will always be in your land. Your land will be target of attack in any war.

Okinawa already have self determination for local issues with her own Okinawa Assembly making local laws. So using Scotland as an example, Okinawa ALREADY have autonomy. There is no lost of self control over domestic matters in Okinawa. The only intrusion I have seen is the text book Tokyo try to force on Okinawan education. There was a complain last year in Tektomi school and Okinawa Assembly should override Tokyo to make sure she really have autonomy in this aspect as well.
So in my opinion autonomy is not enough. They don't solve the problem of war danger that if it ever occur will be from Jeitai forces due to nationalist policies from LDP Abe and his supporters.

There is not a chance Okinawans can have real peace and economic progress if they continue the status quo and just complain. It is time to break out of this status quo or Okinawa will never be a happy country for her citizens. It is your own destiny and if you don't take action nobody can help you.

Jeitai forces are smart. They are well behaving unlike Americans, they keep low profile, thus Okinawans see them as good guys. It is true the personnel are well behaving but it is the policies from Tokyo that is the danger as I explained, not the personnel themselves.

What about the American bases? I think Americans are just using Okinawa as their all year round vacation! They just go there to make some noise, Pacific Power Projection and they have tacit understanding with China to just 'play along'. Not so with Tokyo . Tokyo vs China is serious confrontation whereas US and China is 'share the space' as both need to accomodate each other. They are both mature enough to understand war is too costly and have rules to prevent them from happening.

When should Okinawans push Jeitai out of their land if they push for independence? I think as soon as Okinawa manage to get more trade investments from China but as I said, China won't come if you don't make her feel welcomed! Remember you do not have sufficient labor skill and cost advantage to encourage them to come in the first place so if they do come, it will be more like a politically motivated investments by their state run corporations.

Sunday, March 2, 2014

「和訳版」Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands Inclusion In Okinawa Independence Two Step Strategy 沖縄独立運動に尖閣諸島を含めることについての2ステップ


尖閣諸島は、沖縄独立運動において、琉球国に含めなければならない。

二段階のステップこそが、軍事的アドバンテージにおいて、尖閣を中国と日本から引きはがすための唯一の現実的な方法である。
もしも尖閣が、沖縄独立に記録されなければ、領土争いは残されてしまい、中国対日米による戦争のリスクに晒され続けることになるだろう。
技術の進歩によって、戦闘機やミサイルの距離やスピードは改善され、おそらく10年後には、沖縄は日米と無関係になっているかもしれないが、領土問題を引きずったままでは、たとえ沖縄に基地がなくても、中国と日米間の戦争のポテンシャルはまだ持ったままだろう。

現在日本が領土としている尖閣を、沖縄独立の主張に含めることは必須である。
沖縄も(尖閣)諸島に対して、所有の根拠があるだろうが、おそらくそれは、中国や日本よりも弱い。
だからこそ、(尖閣)諸島付近での経済的権利を分け合うために、それぞれが満足のいく合意内容に達することが必要なのである。
このことは、独立運動家たちは早い段階で理解していなければならないし、それは彼らが中国や日本と共存していかねばならないからであって、この件について妥協を必要とするからである。

ところで、新琉球国の北限は、奄美から始まっていなければならない。
これは東京が新たな空軍基地を作ることを阻止するために役立つ。

独立運動の初期段階では、尖閣に対する領土権を主張したことによって、中国も東京も沖縄に対して敵意を向けてくるだろう。
ともあれ、中国はおそらく、独立沖縄が尖閣を共有するとわかれば、(敵意が)マシになるだろう。
それどころか中国は、沖縄の独立に大満足だろう、だから中国は、全体図を理解すれば、それほど文句を言わないだろう。
ただひとり東京だけが、沖縄の扱いに注意しなければならない、やり方を間違って、沖縄が東京に何も分けてあげなかった場合には、(沖縄の)独立によって失うものが最も多いからだ。

水面下で、独立後の(尖閣)諸島における軍事的経済的調整についての暗黙の了解ができている限り、中国と日本が怒っても問題はない。
だから第一段階としては、尖閣を沖縄のコントロール下に置くこと。
二段階目は、どんな軍隊の存在も許さないことによって、軍事的有用性をなくすこと、もしかすると、必要があれば国連軍を(尖閣)に。
経済的権利は、この二段階目で交渉すること。

台湾ももちろん怒るだろう、しかし領土問題に関しては、台湾はそれほどアクティブなプレイヤーではないから、資源については少な目のシェアになるべきだ、東京が与えた漁業権のように。

沖縄の人たちの目的は、文化の保存と、東京の狡猾な経済植民地主義と、二級市民扱いによる経済的締め付けから逃れることだが、独立運動においては、大きな世界的視野を持たねばならない。
尖閣諸島を独立琉球国の範囲内に含めることは必要であり、それが、沖縄を囲む大国の存在による、沖縄の軍事的重要性を中立化する唯一の方法である。

尖閣を巡る、沖縄独立運家と、中国・日本との交渉過程においては、密かに行われなければならない、そして新生琉球国を敬意と品位を持って遇してくれた国に対しては、報いなければならない。
(交渉は)おそらく独立運動が盛り上がって、東京と北京がまともに取り合ってくれるようになったあとの、遅い段階でなければできないだろう。

沖縄の人たちは、中国と日本の合意事項には関係なく、200マイルEEZ内へのフルアクセス漁業権と、オイル・ガスの掘削権を持つべきである。
沖縄のアクセス権について、制限が設けられるべきではない。

沖縄の人たちが、尖閣諸島を中立的に保持している限り、中国が尖閣を利用して潜水艦を隠しているんじゃないかとか、台湾や日本を脅かすために島を軍事占領するんじゃないかという危険に関しての、日米による軍事的心配はなくなる。

freeokin.blogspot.com

Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands Inclusion In Okinawa Independence Two Step Strategy

Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands Inclusion In Okinawa Independence Two Step Strategy

Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands must be included in Ryukus nation as part of the Okinawan independence pursuit.

The Two Step Strategy is the only practical way to keep Diaoyu/Senkaku out of the hand of Japan and China for military advantage. If Diaoyu/Senkaku is not included in Okinawa independence document, it will leave the islands dispute unresolved and will continue risking war between China and Japan/US. Technology advances improving jets and missile range and speed perhaps a decade away may make Okinawa irrelevant to Japan/US but the lingering disputes will still cause potential war between China and Japan/US even without Okinawa bases.

It is necessary to keep current Japanese claim on Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in Okinawan Independence pursuit. Okinawan also have their own claim to the islands but perhaps not as strong as China or Japan. For this reason it is necessary to share the economic rights around the islands to reach a satisfactory arrangement among the parties. This should be understood early on by independence activists as they are destined to live with China and Japan and thus need to compromise on this issue.

BTW the northern reach of the new Ryukus nation should start from Amami. This also help prevent Tokyo from building a new airbase there.

In the early stage of the independence movement, both China and Tokyo will be hostile to Okinawans due to their claims on Diaoyu/Senkaku. However China will probably be less antagonistic when the post independent Okinawa share Diayou/Senkaku with her. Moreover China will be very happy to see Okinawa independent, so she will not complain too much after she see the big picture. Only Tokyo got to be careful how she treat Okinawans as she have the most to lose post independence if she mistreat Okinawans and Okinawans may not give her any share at all.

It does not matter China and Japan are both upset as long as behind the scene tacit agreement is made with them about post independence islands military, economic arrangements. So the first step is to have Diaoyu/Senkaku under Okinawan control. The second step is to neutralise the military usefulness by not allowing any military presence there, perhaps with UN forces on islands if needed. Economic rights to be negotiated as part of this second step.

Taiwan ROC will also be upset of course, but since she is not an active player in the dispute she should probably have less share to the resources, about like the fishery rights Tokyo give her now.

While the aspiration of Okinawans are cultural preservation and to get away from economic oppression from Tokyo via subtle economic colonialism strategy and other second class treatments, Okinawans must also think of the big global picture in their independence pursuit. It is necessary to include Diaoyu/Senkaku islands within the border of an independent Ryukus nation as the only way to neutralise it's military importance for the big powers around her.

There should be quiet behind the scene negotiation between the Okinawa independence activists with China and Japan regarding Diaoyu/Senkaku and reward those who treat a newly created Ryukus nation with respect and dignity. This probably can only be done at the later stage when the independence movement gather steam and is taken seriously by both Tokyo and Beijing.

Okinawans must have full access to the 200 miles EEZ fishery rights and the oil/gas drilling as well regardless of the agreements with China and Japan. There shall be no restrictions to Okinawan access.

By keeping Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in Okinawan hand and maintaining neutrality, there is no more military consideration by Japan/US with regard to danger of China using these islands to hide her submarines there and occupy the islands militarily to threaten Taiwan or Japan.

Friday, February 28, 2014

Dirty Politics, Nakaima Question, Funding, Tainted Independence Pursuit

Politics is a dirty business. One should not expect politicians to be unblemished. Over the course of their careers, some will change party, even sell out their constituents for own selfish gains. Self preservation is usually the culprit. There are very few politicians who are altruistic. We see politicians changing party all the time in the US, from Democratic to Republican and vice versa. Sometimes to become independent, or form another party which is quite rare.


So given the nature of reality in the political world, one should not be surprised at the flip flop position of Governor Nakaima. His job is supposed to be to look out for the Okinawa Prefecture. Somehow under intense arm twisting by Tokyo and Washington, he caved in, perhaps he think he can sell a bigger budget from Tokyo sweetener in exchange for sacrificing Henoko.

This very same Governor Nakaima can also be twisted back to go against Tokyo if enough pressure is put on him!

First of all, we all have to remember that Governor Nakaima was elected to serve Okinawa Prefecture. Somewhere along the way, he was pressured to serve his LDP party first which is for Henoko base relocation of Futenma, at the expense of his initial priority to serve Okinawans first.

What happened is history. Governor Nakaima got the extra budget promise of $3 billion plus per year for Okinawa in exchange for Henoko relocation. He might be finessing his strategy to allow the land reclaimation to start and hope the local mayor Inaime do the dirty work for him to stop the relocation. He is condemned by many Okinawans and is considered a spent political force there.

However what if Governor Nakaima can be used by Okinawan independence activists to gather more support for independence? What if he throw his weight to the independence movement and get his fellow LDP members in Okinawan Assembly to pass the Independence Bill? He will of course make Tokyo very angry, perhaps US too. However it does not matter to him anymore. He have to preserve his legacy among the Okinawan people whom he owes First Allegiance. I am sure in his heart he is a pure Okinawan and want to look out for Okinawans. However he was in a very difficult situation and perhaps he have miscalculated by allowing Henoko land reclaimation. Or perhaps he was subtly forced into doing it. We never know how dirty Tokyo politics work. He was in Tokyo supposedly for medical trip when he make the decision. Was there coercion? We never know.

Anyway, I am pretty sure, Gov Nakaima want to find a way to redeem himself and the opportunity to redeem himself will only happen if Okinawans welcome his support for Okinawa Independence. As I said, politics is dirty, people change sides. It is important not to take it personally and have a visionary discussion with Governor Nakaima to try to influence him to support Okinawa Independence. His legacy is at stake and I believe he will welcome his participation in Okinawa Independence if only someone ask him nicely!

Once he decide to publicly announce his support for independence, I am pretty sure the current kindling of independence movement will become a flame that will gather international attention. Headline News: Governor Nakaima, the guy who approve Henoko support Okinawa Independence! One publicity leads to another, changing this small flame into a bigger fire. With more visibility, more Okinawans will see HOPE that independence is a Real Possibility! This is also the Golden Time to solicit Funding to help Okinawans campaign for their independence. It cost money, lots of money to help make this a successful movement. I am very optimistic there are plenty of people within Japan and overseas in US, China, HK, Taiwan, Europe, anywhere, once they understand the aspirations of the Okinawan People and my own Global Peace initiative, they will see this as a very worthy cause to support.

So Gov Nakaima is still useful. He is not to be discarded. He can also persuade other LDP members in Okinawa to become independent members and forget about dependency on Tokyo. This will especially be so when they see massive amount of money flowing into Okinawa Independence funds to help take care of their basic needs of own self survival with no need to depend on Tokyo. Seriously as I said, politics is dirty, so I suspect many LDP members in Okinawa are LDP not because they think it is good for Okinawa, but because they think by being LDP members, they have a safer way to take care of their own personal needs. Simply put, these may not be honest politicians, they only look out for themselves but they can become useful for Okinawa Independence, just like Gov Nakaima.


Independence piggyback activists: Much to my dismay, I notice some Okinawan independence activists being used by outside forces who have their own independence agenda separate from Okinawans. I will not name names here, but what this do by having outside parties show up in Okinawan independence rally is it damage the movement. Remember funding is a necessary part of independence movement and whatever small gains these Okinawans activists have from the outside supporters perhaps they make a small donation to help them, they cause far more harm than good.

Okinawan independence movement must be done in a pristine environment, no outsider activists representing other organizations should ever be allowed to taint the Okinawan effort. Just one photo of outside forces mixed in among the Okinawans can affect greatly the perception of potential donors.

I urge Okinawans to try to sway Governor Nakaima and use his clout to increase the Okinawa Independence Head Count. Being very visible to Okinawans, his action will suddenly increase the amount of Okinawans showing up in support for independence. Being practical is more important than idealistic pursuit. Independence activists are probably mostly not into politics and may not have pragmatic viewpoints. In my various posts, I urge pragmatism, especially relating to China so everybody wins except bad bad Tokyo!

「和訳版」Killing Three Bird With One Stone 一石で三鳥を落とす

「和訳版」Killing Three Bird With One Stone

一石で三鳥を落とす

沖縄独立運動を支援することによって、平和を保つことができる、日本が、尖閣をめぐる中国との戦争をそそのかし、企むことができなくなるからだ、那覇や石垣の空軍基地や港を戦争の足がかりとして使えなくなるからだ。
私は、基地の撤去を要求している人たちに指摘したいのだが、彼らは戦争のカウントダウンがわかっていない、さらに、空軍基地を九州やグアムなどへ移せば、その地理的不利によって、日米は突然大人しくなるということも。
それが、自衛隊の空軍基地を沖縄から撤去すれば、日本はすぐに大人しくなるということの理由であり、これによって、「交渉すべきことは何もない」という傲慢な態度に代えて、中国との交渉の機会を作れるようになるということだ。
沖縄の人たちが文化を保存し、経済を改善するための運命を取り戻すことについて、あなたは絶対に支持するだろう。
自由になるんだ、絶対に自由になる!
辺野古沖のジュゴンの保護についても、あなたは絶対に支持するだろう。
そう、このページの冒頭にあるように、彼らは沖縄の「海のパンダちゃん」。


The Chinese Hypersonic WU-14 Glide Missile Game Changer In Forcing Jeitai Airbase, US Out Of Henoko, Kadena Okinawa

War Game Simulation: There is nothing written here that is not imagined by Pentagon war planners. I just try to show the What If scenario that the military brass knows and they plan their policies accordingly.

This is a scenario that is purely speculative now. The reason I put this out now is to give hope to Okinawans that US will withdraw from Okinawa or at least reduce massively her presence there over the next few years because of the difficulty to protect her bases in Okinawa from Chinese attack.

As I said, one need to think like a military man in order understand why US and Japan insist in having their bases in Okinawa. Japanese forces in Naha and Ishigaki. That is why I have being emphasizing all along, forcing these forces out of Okinawa will increase chance for Global Peace when US and Japan are defanged, they are less likely to initiate a war. Please note China does not have a history of starting war, only being a victim of war. In particular Japan with an aggressive WWI & WWII war record, one cannot take a chance with Japanese behavior when under stress from China's constant patrolling around Diaoyu/Senkaku, Japan may choose to become confrontational instead of negotiating. In other words, Japan just don't know when to fold, to capitulate when the reality demands it and instead have the tendency to fight to the death out of silly nationalists attitudes. That is why uncivilize acts like Hara Kiri, Kamikaze only happen in Japanese culture and not from other people.

OK, the hypersonic glide missile weapon from China: this missile is capable of Mach 10 or more and move at unpredictable pattern making it near impossible to intercept. Let's assume China place this missile somewhere off her coast on a nearest island to Okinawa or in a secret location along the coastline. This could well be somewhere off Fujian province coastline or on an airbase near the coast. Let's say this is 720 miles away from Kadena, Okinawa.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WU-14

The Free Beacon said the test made China the third country after the Russian Federation and United States to have successfully tested a hypersonic delivery vehicle able to carry nuclear warheads at a speed above Mach 10 - or 12,359 kilometers per hour (7,675 mph).[3] China is also believed to be developing a hypersonic scramjet version that can be launched from air or ground. Notice it could be even faster than Mach 10, so five minutes from launch to destroy target in Okinawa may be even a bit generous.

Speed of sound is 767 miles per hour, so at Mach 10 min, and closer location, Okinawa may even be hit in five minutes. I am certain Chinese military planners will configure the optimal location to launch the missile to prevent any US or Japanese plane from getting airborne. In war seconds count!

Illustration: 
Distance Between Changle and Naha Airport (OKA) is
1097.55 kilometers
681.99 miles
Distance Between Zhangzhou and Naha Airport (OKA) is 1020.78 kilometers
634.29 miles
http://disween.com/zhangzhou-07-cn/OKA
There could be even closer location than this airfield to Okinawa.

Since hypersonic glide missile is ballistic, add say 200 miles to go up and come down at an angle.

Let's say the hypersonic glide missile travels at 7200 miles per hour. This means in 6 minutes only, this missile will be able to hit Kadena Air Base in Okinawa! This will make it near impossible for US jets to take off. Some may be on standby, 24/7 during heightened crisis but most will not, and those that cannot take off will not after the runway is bombed.

This can also be applied to the Japanese airbase in Naha. Some may fly away, but most will not and be damaged at the base.

The only worry is if this hypersonic glide missile is not accurate enough and hit residential areas in Okinawa. War is dirty and collateral damage is to be expected.

China need more Beidou satellites to help navigate with greater precision to attack the air bases. This is forthcoming as China is furiously building up the network of Beidou satellites.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beidou_Navigation_Satellite_System

In the very near future, perhaps a couple of years or so, I think there will be an operational hypersonic glide missile able to attack Okinawa air bases.

This means US military planners will be quacking at their boots and will quietly reconfigure their military plans to move more US bases out of Okinawa.

The Henoko base relocation from Futenma will not mean much in the coming years. It is just a brave face US put up to show a strong posture against China. However I suspect it will be mostly use for drones and other vehicles and equipments that require less US military personnel. US always try to fight a high tech war, less military death the better. So Henoko if it is ever built will have much less US personnel or may just be abandoned given Chinese upcoming overwhelming missile capability to destroy them.

Again I want to remind readers, it is the speed of the missile and how fast the reaction time that affects how a military planner think. If the Pentagon planners see Chinese missiles coming in so very fast at under 7 minutes and at such a speed and angle of attack that makes it near impossible to defend, they will advice the US president to move US bases out of Okinawa.

So Okinawans should THANK China for her threatening missile to help them kick US off Okinawa and kick Japanese airbases out of Naha as well! If Japan refuse to leave or Okinawans don't want to declare independence, then those living in Naha may be in harms way due to potential collateral damage.

Chinese military planners may conduct Short Sharp War to surprise Japan/US to prevent her planes from taking off. Below shows the scenario where surprise may be necessary to prevent planes from taking off.

Default NATO QRA alert time is 15 minutes (in DEFCON 5), although the local CRC can lower that to ten (DEFCON 4), five (DEFCON 3) or even two minutes (DEFCON 2) depending on current state of affairs.
At 5 minutes (DEFCON 3), the engines would be running idle 24/7, at 2 minutes (DEFCON 2) there are pilots in the cockpit 24/7.
Read more: http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/air-force-aviation/how-fast-can-us-air-force-scramble-jets-10863/#ixzz2uV0skbw8

Ballistic Missile Range:https://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/missile/basics.htm
Short-Range Ballistic missile SRBM up to 1000 kilometers
However, GPS has significant application for an TBM outfitted with a post-boost vehicle (bus) or attitude control module that navigates a reentry vehicle to a more accurate trajectory. 
More Beidou is key to accuracy
Chinese hypersonic glide missile WU 14 when used against Okinawa targets probably Theatre Ballistic Missile type with distance as short as 186 miles and fly lower than ICBM. So it seems if China can find a spot outside 200 miles EEZ off Okinawa, this missile can fly even faster to reach target. See photo in space.com web link.
At altitudes above 120 km (75 mi), atmospheric density is generally insufficient to cause the onset of ablation. 
http://www.space.com/19601-how-intercontinental-ballistic-missiles-work-infographic.html This site offer range example TBM that is what the hypersonic glide missile will be used in this category.

「和訳版」The Chinese Hypersonic WU-14 Glide Missile Game Changer In Forcing Jeitai Airbase, US Out Of Henoko, Kadena Okinawa 中国の切り札「超高音速WU-14型グライドミサイル」によって、自衛隊空軍基地と米軍は、沖縄の辺野古、嘉手納から撤退を余儀なくされる

「和訳版」The Chinese Hypersonic WU-14 Glide Missile Game Changer In Forcing Jeitai Airbase, US Out Of Henoko, Kadena Okinawa

中国の切り札「超高音速WU-14型グライドミサイル」によって、自衛隊空軍基地と米軍は、沖縄の辺野古、嘉手納から撤退を余儀なくされる

戦争シミュレーション:ペンタゴンの戦争プランナーが思いつかないようなことは、ここにはひとつも書いていない。
私はただ、軍のお偉方が知っていること、彼らが彼らのポリシーに基づいて計画していることを教えてあげたいだけだ。

これは今のところ、純粋に推測の範囲である。
これを示す理由は、沖縄の人たちに、2~3年後には、中国から基地を守れないと言う理由でもって、米軍が沖縄から撤退する、または少なくとも大幅に削減するだろうという希望を与えることだ。

前にも言ったように、軍人になったつもりで、アメリカと日本が、どうして沖縄に基地を置くことに固執するのかを考えることが必要だ。那覇と石垣の自衛隊も。
それが、私が声を大にして、沖縄から自衛隊を追い出すことが、日米から牙を抜き、戦争を起こしにくくさせ、世界平和につながると、言ってきたことの理由である。
中国は戦争の被害者になったことはあっても、自分から戦争を始めたことはないということを覚えておいてほしい。
特に日本は第一次と第二次世界大戦では攻撃的だったわけだから、日本を甘く見てはいけない、中国が尖閣付近で恒常的にパトロールをするというストレス下においては、日本は話し合いよりも対決を選ぶかもしれない。
言葉を変えれば、日本は、折れるべき時期がわからない、現実的に見て降参するしかないということがわからなくて、その代わりに馬鹿げた愛国主義で死ぬまで戦ってしまうという傾向がある。
それが、腹切りとか神風とかいう非文明的な行動が、日本の文化だけにあって、ほかの人々にはないということの理由である。

それでは、中国の超高音速グライドミサイル兵器:このミサイルはマッハ10かそれ以上で、ほとんど邪魔をされないように、予測不可能な動きができる。
中国がこのミサイルを、沖縄に最も近いどこかの沿岸とか、湾岸に沿った密かな場所に設置することを想像してみよう。
これは福建省の沿岸のどこかに容易に設置できるし、付近の空軍基地でも可能だ。
沖縄の嘉手納から、720マイルしか離れていないんだってさ。

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WU-14

フリービーコン(アメリカのウェブサイト)は、この実験によって、中国は、超高音速発射物体にマッハ10または12.359キロメーター毎時の核弾頭を搭載することのできる、ロシアとアメリカに次ぐ三番目の国になったと言っている。
中国はさらに、空中や地上から発射可能な超高音速スクラムジェット版の開発をしていると言われている。
それはマッハ10より速いので、発射から5分以内に沖縄の目標を破壊できるということじゃないか、たぶんもうちょっと時間をくれるかも。

音波は767マイル時、だからマッハ10/分で、近ければ、沖縄は5分以内に攻撃されるあろう。
私は、中国の軍事プランナーたちが、日米の航空機が舞い上がるのを阻止するための最適な場所を探すはずだと確信する。
戦争になれば、秒単位だ!

例:

長楽(福建省)と那覇空港の距離は

1097.55 キロメーター
681.99 マイル

漳州と那覇空港の距離は

1020.78 キロメーター
634.29 マイル

http://disween.com/zhangzhou-07-cn/OKA
この空港よりも沖縄に近いロケーションもあるだろう。

超高音速グライドミサイルは弾道ミサイルだから、目標から200マイルくらい余計に必要だろう。

超高音速グライドミサイルは、毎時7200マイル進むんだってさ。
これは、沖縄の嘉手納空軍基地を攻撃するまで6分以内ということだ!
これは、米軍の戦闘機の離陸を不可能にするだろう。
24時間体制の危機的状況なら、いくつかはスタンバイしているだろうが、ほとんどはしていないだろう、それらの離陸できなかった戦闘機は破壊される。

これは那覇の自衛隊空軍基地にもあてはまる。
いくつかは離陸できるだろうが、ほとんどは無理だし、基地で壊されることになるだろう。

ただひとつ心配なことは、この超高音速ミサイルはそれほど正確でないから、沖縄の居住地域を攻撃してしまうんじゃないかということだ。
戦争は汚いものだ、二次的被害は当然だ。

中国が正確に空軍基地を攻撃するためには、もっと北斗衛星のナビゲーションによる助けが必要である。
これはやがて現実になる、中国は北斗衛星ネットワークの確立にやっきになっているから。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beidou_Navigation_Satellite_System

非常に近い将来、たぶん2年後とかそのくらいに、超高音速グライドミサイルが実用化されて、沖縄の空軍基地への攻撃が可能になると思う。

これは、アメリカの軍事プランナーが、最も恐れていることであって、彼らは、沖縄からもっと多くの米軍基地を移動させるための計画を、こっそり練ることだろう。

辺野古基地の普天間からの移転は、今後は意味を成さなくなるだろう。
それは単に、中国に対して強硬姿勢を見せなければならないアメリカのやせ我慢である。
とにかく私は、アメリカの兵隊の数を減らすために、もっと無人偵察機や車両や装備が使われるようになるのではないかと思っている。
アメリカは常に、ハイテク戦争を目指している、戦死者が少ないほど都合がいい。
だから辺野古が建設されたとしても、アメリカの兵隊の数は少なくなるだろうし、または、中国が圧倒的なミサイル技術で迫ってくると思って、ただ遺棄するかもしれない。

再度読者に思い出してもらいたいんだけど、軍事プランナーが考えているのは、スピードと、(それに対して)有効な対処が可能な時間である。
もしもペンタゴンのプランナーが、中国のミサイルが7分以内で到達するから早すぎるということで、そのスピードと角度の攻撃に対処して防衛することができないと見れば、彼らは大統領に米軍基地を沖縄から移動させることをアドバイスするだろう。

だから沖縄の人たちは、アメリカと日本の空軍基地を那覇から追い出すために協力してくれたということでもって、威嚇的なミサイルを作ってくれた中国に感謝するべきなんだ!
もしも日本が出て行くことを拒んだり、沖縄が独立を宣言しなければ、那覇に住む人々は、巻き添えになって被害を被るかもしれない。

中国の軍事プランナーは、日米を驚かせ、戦闘機が離陸できいような、短くてシャープな戦争を指揮するだろう。
以下は、離陸を阻止するための驚くべきシナリオである。

(訳者註:以下の訳については、訳者が理解できない内容を訳しているので、意味不明の場合には、英文のほうをご覧ください)

怠慢なNATOのQRAアラートは15分(DEFCON 5で)、さらにローカルCRCは10分から低くなる可能性がある(DEFCON 4で)、5分(DEFCON 3)または2分(DEFCON2)直近の状況によって違う。
5分では(DEFCON 3)、エンジンが24時間体制でアイドルになっているのは、2分(DEFCON 2)コックピットにパイロットが24時間常駐している。

Read more: http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/air-force-aviation/how-fast-can-us-air-force-scramble-jets-10863/#ixzz2uV0skbw8

Ballistic Missile Range:https://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/missile/basics.htm
Short-Range Ballistic missile SRBM up to 1000 kilometers
However, GPS has significant application for an TBM outfitted with a post-boost vehicle (bus) or attitude control module that navigates a reentry vehicle to a more accurate trajectory.
More Beidou is key to accuracy
Chinese hypersonic glide missile WU 14 when used against Okinawa targets probably Theatre Ballistic Missile type with distance as short as 186 miles and fly lower than ICBM. So it seems if China can find a spot outside 200 miles EEZ off Okinawa, this missile can fly even faster to reach target. See photo in space.com web link.
At altitudes above 120 km (75 mi), atmospheric density is generally insufficient to cause the onset of ablation.
http://www.space.com/19601-how-intercontinental-ballistic-missiles-work-infographic.html This site offer range example TBM that is what the hypersonic glide missile will be used in this category

Saturday, February 22, 2014

All Roads Leads To China: How Geopolitical Calculations Will Make An Independent Okinawa Very Wealthy! すべての道は中国へ続く:地理的計略がどのように独立沖縄国を富ませるかについて!

China Rising And The Opportunity For Okinawa Independence:

CREEPING Independence may be the best way to force Japan to let Okinawans have their own destiny. By this I mean Okinawans build up their own economic strength and that is where China comes into the picture! 

A strengthening China offers an excellent opportunity for Okinawan Independence. There is no better time in history for Okinawans to fight for independence than now! The reason as noted in my various posts is an economically strong China lift all boats in the region and many countries around the world. Think of this like US lifting the economic boats of developing countries.

The golden opportunity is now or it never will be. Okinawans are at a crossroad. Wait longer and she will lose her own identity and forever become part of Japan. The reason of course is assimilation and younger generations generally have little interest in self identity. Look across the ocean and see Taiwanese as an example. It is pretty scary to hear many southern Taiwanese having being influenced by Japan refuse to see themselves as more Chinese than Japanese. Of course the reason is they despise mainland Chinese because China is not yet a democracy. This very same people will be more Chinese when they see China more prosperous and advanced than them. Anyway self identity should be natural, from own cultural heritage, not just adopting others and forgetting one's own roots. 

All Roads Lead To China. Really! This is just a consequence of China being a big populous nation and the awakened China is full of economic activities. This economic activities will benefit all nations and it will be rather silly for Okinawans not to have a piece of the pie. Even Vietnam with all the disputes with China is building casinos to cater for the Chinese gamblers. Okinawa can benefit if she work hard to win over Chinese investments as well. However as noted elsewhere the Investment Climate in Okinawa is not conducive for China to participate. Okinawans themselves may wrongly have a bad impression of China after years of being misled by news about China as a threat. Furthermore a Chinese consulate in Naha will facilitate trade instead of present Tokyo scheme to strangle China's investment by forcing Chinese to go to Fukuoka to get paperworks done.

I hope Okinawans smarten up and see China as an Opportunity, a Savior and not a danger to her existence. If properly managed, Okinawans will be able to find a crack on her path to independence by way of Chinese influence. Of course this should be done cautiously so as to avoid being accused of selling out to China.

The first step perhaps is for the Naha mayor and Okinawa governor to make a business delegation visit to China to explore the possibilities of China bringing in investments to Okinawa. China should come in cautiously as well, investing no more than say 5% of Okinawan economy to show good faith she can help to improve Okinawan condition on her pathway to independence.

If independence people see China helping out, more people may join as they won't have to worry about Tokyo strangulating their economy as a punishment on the path to independence.

Ideally as I said, foreign influence in Okinawa should be about 40% China, 40% Japan and balance 20% from Europe, America and other Asian countries. This will make Okinawa a cosmopolitan country not dependent on any particular country for economic survival.

Strange as it may sound, an independent Okinawa will prosper immensely. Okinawans do not have to do a lot of things. They will finally see big prosperity in their future for precisely the same reason they suffer because of their LOCATION.

? How so As we see now, Okinawans suffer endlessly due to the strategic locations of Okinawan islands to benefit Japan and US So remember this:. It is due to military consideration Okinawans are made to suffer through no fault of their own due to the strategic locations of their islands. If the Okinawans do not get out of this occupation of their homeland by US and Japan the majority will forever be in poverty and never have a chance to prosper.

However what if they become independent? Will they become rich BECAUSE of their strategic location? The answer is a Definite YES!

? How is it possible First I want to digress: Tokyo will put every roadblocks to prevent Okinawa from becoming independent, So Okinawans have to go in via the Back Door, meaning act AS IF independent by trading with other countries, border controls, do extra things outside the control of Tokyo. Among the things that Okinawans must do is to attract Massive Trade with China, be it service or products. The idea is to BALANCE OUT the economic dependency of Okinawa on Tokyo and allow China to influence Okinawan economy up to the 40% limit.

With this danger of Chinese overruning Okinawa economically, Tokyo will be forced to pay more attention to Okinawa by increasing trade, special preferences to counter act Chinese influence. Tokyo and China may not necessary make sound economic decisions but that is their problem and Okinawan wins!

Think of Myanmar as an example. Remember Myanmar depend on China for decades due to lack of democracy, she was shunned by Western world and is economically stunted. Now that she is more democratic Japan rushed in to give away money to her, forgiving billions of debt and give generous economic terms. So think of Okinawa like Myanmar, two big suitors wanting to have influence over her and they will be very willing to give generous terms to her. Thus one can see because Okinawa is so very important to both China and Japan for Strategic Location considerations, both these countries will make sure Okinawa will NEVER AGAIN fall into the hand of the other party. Both China and Japan will work very very hard to please Okinawans, showering her with gifts and special treatment!

So yes, in a strange way Okinawans having suffered greatly due to their strategic location will benefit Very Handsomely exactly due to this very same reason! She must however make the first step to move towards independence and not just talk talk talk and worry about being intimidated by Japan / US.

The fact is Okinawa will never be a country with no influence by her neighbors. She will always be influenced by both China and Japan, hopefully after independence it will be for the better of all Okinawans!

Thus I see a Vision of Okinawa in the future to be a constant tug of war between China and Japan in the economic sense, no war, but both countries trying to keep Okinawa within her sphere of influence. The end result will be Okinawa having clusters of Chinatowns here and there and Japanese companies all over Okinawa and other Ryukus Islands as they have now. There will be many Chinese companies in collaboration with Okinawan researchers in the field of science and technology perhaps in the new Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology University. China will provide generous funding to help discover and develop new products. Tokyo is broke, so funding will most likely come from China. The end result will be a fairly evenly matched economic influence between China and Japan over Okinawa, both perhaps investing about 40% in her economy and the balance from other countries. Tourism from both countries may be about evenly matched as well.

Okinawa is a small country with less than 1.5 million people so it is quite easy to improve her economy easily just by taking a small portion of China and Japan's foreign investments. The whole China Seas have not yet being fully explored for oil and gas. Current research underway in the South China Seas, funded mostly by China, but research done by international group. If successful and there is no reason why ocean topography is much different in the East China Sea, there is very good chance Okinawa / Ryukus Islands will benefit from future oil / gas drilling. http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/01/29/china-leads-first-oil-gas-exploration-in-south-china-sea-in -years /

Fake sanshin music:. ​​Once independence movement gather steam, Tokyo / Washington will try to play snake charmer blowing fake music to put Okinawans to sleep again, perhaps by bribing them or move some bases out The train have already left the station and Okinawans should not go for half a loaf. Full Speed ​​Ahead!         

So sit back and relax, fight for independence and your future will be very bright indeed!

P / S:. I want to remind readers my motivation for an Independent Okinawa is primarily to remove the Japanese military presence in Naha, Ishigaki and elsewhere Of course justice need be done to Okinawans as well, to free themselves from being under the thumb of Tokyo / Washington, so I feel good when Okinawans celebrate Independence Day, coming soon! This I think will create a peaceful environment between China and Japan as Japan will find herself unable to patrol Diaoyu / Senkaku, too far away to be practical and thus forced to negotiate with China, instead of the arrogant 'Nothing To Negotiate' stance now. Meanwhile pre independence, China will not dare to attack Diaoyu / Senkaku as the islands are protected by US guarantee to defend against invasion. Okinawans must include Diaoyu / Senkaku as part of their independence movement, from Amami up north to Diaoyu / Senkaku. How they deal with China and Japan later after independence regarding Diaoyu / Senkaku will be up to them to negotiate but I think a 50/50 split will be wonderful with Okinawans themselves having unlimited access.

「和訳版」All Roads Leads To China: How Geopolitical Calculations Will Make An Independent Okinawa Very Wealthy!

すべての道は中国へ続く:地理的計略がどのように独立沖縄国を富ませるかについて!

中国の台頭と沖縄独立のチャンスについて:密かに独立することが、独立を日本に認めさせる最も良い方法だ。
何を言っているかというと、沖縄の人たちは経済的な強さを確立するということで、だから中国が視野に入ってくるんだ!

中国の台頭は、沖縄独立にとっては願ってもないチャンスである。
今を置いてほかに、沖縄が独立を勝ち取るのに適した機会はない!
ほかの記事でも書いたように、その理由は、経済的に強くなった中国が、周辺国や世界中の多くの国を浮揚させているということだ。
アメリカが発展途上国の経済を浮揚させているのと同じである。

絶好の機会は今を置いてほかになく、もう来ないだろう。
沖縄の人たちは、分かれ道に立っている。
待てば待つほど自分たちのアイデンティティを失い、永遠に日本の一部になる。
同化政策の当然の結果として、さらに若い世代は自分のアイデンティティに対する関心が希薄である。
例として、海の向こうの台湾を見てごらん。
南部台湾の多くの人が、自分たちが中国人であることを否定し、日本人だと思いたがることには、かなりぞっとする。
もちろんその理由は、彼らが本土の中国人を軽蔑しているからであり、中国が民主主義でないからということだ。
この人たちは、中国がもっと繁栄し、先進国になったら、もっと中国人らしくなるだろう。
とにかく、よそから取り入れたものでなく、自分のルーツを忘れることなく、自分が受け継いだ文化のアイデンティティが自然であるべきだ。

すべての道は中国へ続く。
本当だ!
これは中国の人口が多いことの結果であり、目覚めた中国は経済活動に満ちている。
この経済活動は、すべてのほかの国を潤すだろうし、沖縄の人たちがおこぼれにありつかないことは馬鹿げている。
中国との問題を抱えているベトナムでさえ、中国人ギャンブラーに対応するためにカジノを建設している。
沖縄も、中国からの投資を勝ち取るために本気で努力すれば、利益になる。
とにかく、ほかのところにも書いたけれど、沖縄の投資環境は、中国を参加させるために資していない。
沖縄の人たちは、長い間、中国が脅威だというニュースに誤誘導されて、中国に悪い印象を持っているかもしれない。
もっといえば、今の東京スキームが、中国からの投資を引き出すために、中国人を福岡で手続きさせている代わりに、那覇の中国領事館は、貿易を容易にするかもしれない。

沖縄の人たちは賢くなって、中国をチャンスだと見なしてもらいたい、存在を脅かす危険なものではなく、救世主として。
もしも正しく運用すれば、沖縄の人たちは中国の影響によって、独立へのきっかけをつかめるだろう。
もちろんこれは注意深くやらねばならない、中国に身売りするという批判を免れるために。

最初のステップとしては、那覇市長と県知事が、沖縄への投資の可能性を探るために、中国へ使節団を送る。
中国は警戒するだろうし、沖縄の経済の5%くらいしか投資しないだろう、独立への道を支援することができるという厚情を示すために。

独立を志向する人たちが中国を好意的だと見なせば、独立志向を罰しようとする東京の経済的締め付けを心配する必要がないと思って、もっと多くの人が賛同するだろう。

理想としては、前にも言ったように、沖縄への外国の影響率は、中国が40%、日本が40%、欧州やアメリカやほかのアジアの国々から20%。
このことが、沖縄を、経済的に生き残るために特定の国に依存することのないコスモポリタンな国にするだろう。

へんに聞こえるかもしれないけれど、独立沖縄国は、ものすごく栄えるだろう。
沖縄の人たちは、あんまり働く必要がない。
彼らは最終的には、地理的条件でひどい目に遭ったのと同じ理由で、将来の繁栄を見ることだろう。

どうしてそうなるの?
見ればわかるように、沖縄の人たちは、地理的条件によって、日本とアメリカを益するために、絶え間なく苦しめられている。
だから覚えておいて:なんのあやまちもない沖縄の人たちが苦しめられているのは、彼らの島の戦略的地理位置に基づく軍事的配慮のためだということを。
もしも沖縄の人たちが、日本とアメリカによる占領から抜け出さなければ、大多数の人は貧しいままで、豊かになるチャンスは永遠にない。

ともあれ、独立したらどうなるんだろう?
地理的戦略によって、リッチになれるんだろうか?
答えは絶対にイエス!

どうやればそうなる?
まず話がそれるけど:東京は、独立の邪魔をするためにあらゆる手を使ってくるだろう、だから沖縄の人たちは、裏口から入らねばならない、どういう意味かと いうと、まるで独立しているかのように他の国と貿易をすること、国境警備をすること、東京のコントロールの外でいろいろやること。
これらの事の中で、沖縄の人たちが最もやらねばならないことは、サービスや商品による中国との大規模な貿易を引き寄せること。
東京への経済的依存に対抗するために、中国からの影響を得る(40%までに抑えたもの)ことが狙い。

沖縄の経済が、中国に乗っ取られるんじゃないかと危機感を感じた東京は、中国の影響に対抗するための、特別の配慮でもって、沖縄との貿易を増やすことで、もっと沖縄に注目せざるを得なくなる。
東京と中国の経済にとっては、必ずしも都合が良くないかもしれないが、それは彼らの問題であって、沖縄には都合がいい!

ミャンマーの例を考えてみよう。
ミャンマーは、民主主義が足りないために、何十年も中国に依存していた、西洋世界に騙され、経済的に行き詰っていたことを思い出してみよう。
前より民主的になった今では、日本が押しかけてお金をばらまき、負債を免除し、気前のいい条件で経済提携をする。
だから沖縄をミャンマーのように思うんだ、2つの巨大勢力が、沖縄に影響を与えたいと思い、気前の良い条件を出したいと思うだろう。
だから中国にとっても日本にとっても沖縄が地理的にあまりにも重要であるがゆえ、中国も日本も絶対に相手に渡したくないと思うだろう。
中国も日本も、沖縄を喜ばせるために必死になるだろう、贈り物をしまくって、特別扱いをして!

だからそう、奇妙なことに、沖縄が地理的条件によって苦しんでいるということが、まったく同じように同じ理由で利益になるんだ!
なにしろ、独立へ向けて、最初のステップを踏んで先に進まねばならない、口だけじゃなくて、日米に脅かされることばかりを心配していないで。

実際に、沖縄は、隣国の影響を受けない国だったことは一度もない。
沖縄は常に、中国と日本の両方から影響を受けていたんだ、願わくば独立後には、すべての沖縄の人にとって、(その影響が)よい方向になりますように!

このように私は沖縄の将来は、経済分野における中国と日本の恒常的な綱引きになると思う、戦争はない、しかしどちらの国も沖縄を影響下に収め続けようとする。
最終的には、沖縄にはあちこちにチャイナタウンができ、日本企業がそこらじゅうの沖縄や琉球諸島にいることになる。
多くの中国企業が、科学や技術の分野で沖縄の研究者と提携するだろう、おそらくは新しい沖縄科学技術大学院大学の。
中国は、新製品の発見開発を支援するために、気前よく資金を出すだろう。
東京は破産している、だから資金はほとんど中国から来るだろう。
最終的な結果としては、沖縄をめぐる中国と日本の経済的影響影響は、フェアでイーブンに釣り合って、双方がたぶん40%ずつ投資し、ほかの国とバランスする。
両国からの観光客も、だいたいそれと同じようになるだろう。

沖縄は人口150万人よりも少ない小さな国だから、経済を改善することはとても容易である、ただ中国と日本の外国への投資の一部を利用すればいいんだ。
全シナ海(訳者註:原文では彼はThe whole China Seasとしていますので、適切な日本語がありません)におけるオイルやガスの探索は、まだじゅうぶんに行われていない。
東シナ海でまだ進められていない探索は、主に中国の資本によるものだが、調査は国際団体によって行われている。
もしもうまく行って、東シナ海の海洋地形が間違っているという理由がなければ、沖縄・琉球諸島も将来的に、オイル・ガス掘削による利益が得られるだろう。
http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/01/29/china-leads-first-oil-gas-exploration-in-south-china-sea-in-years/

フェイク三線音楽:一度独立の気運が盛り上がったら、東京・ワシントンは蛇踊りの音頭を奏でて沖縄を再度眠らせようとするだろう、おそらく買収するとか、いくつかの基地を撤去するとか。
すでに電車は発車してしまったんだ、沖縄の人たちは適当なことでごまかされてはならない。
フルスピードで向かえ!

だから座って落ち着いて、独立を勝ち取るんだ、そうすれば絶対に、君たちの将来は明るい!

PS:読者に思い出してもらいたいのだが、私の沖縄独立に対する一番の動機は、那覇や石垣やほかの日本の軍事基地を撤去することである。
もちろん、沖縄の人たちへの正義も行われなければならない、東京・ワシントンの支配から彼らを解放すること、だから沖縄の人たちが独立記念日を祝う時には気分がいいだろう、すぐにそうなる!
私は、このことによって、日本が、あまりにも遠いから尖閣の警備が不可能であるということに気がつき、今のような「交渉すべきことは何もない」という傲慢 なスタンスに代えて、中国との交渉をせざるを得ないということになり、平和な環境を作り出すことができると思っている、
いっぽう、独立前には、アメリカが防衛すると保障していることから、中国は尖閣を攻撃できない。
沖縄の人たちは、奄美から尖閣まで、尖閣をも彼らの独立運動に含めるべきである。
独立後に、尖閣についてどのように中国や日本と交渉するかは、彼ら次第である、しかし私は、アクセス制限なしの50%50%の分割が、沖縄の人たちにとっては最もすばらしいと思う。

Friday, February 21, 2014

Addressing the Okinawan Fear About China's Intention Over Their Land 沖縄への中国の意図を巡る、沖縄の人たちの恐れについて


I was surprised many Okinawans have deep suspicions about China's military design over her. This is very bad for Okinawa independence as my numerous posts suggest Okinawa needs China to help her prosper and be a viable country after independence. The fact of the matter is for Okinawa to prosper she need China more than China needs her. Like it or not, All Roads Lead To China simply because of current Chinese economic strength and massive market.

If one looks at Chinese history, power projection is always based on Soft Power, not hard power with military presence. China knows it is much too expensive to maintain hard power military presence and cause resentment among locals. Thus trade, tributary status of smaller countries is the usual way for Chinese power projection. That is what happen with Malacca, Malaysia before when China sent Hang Li Poh to marry the sultan there to establish relationship with her ​​tributary state. So anybody who think China have military design, putting a Military Garrison on Okinawa Have Being Brainwashed by Propaganda from U.S. and Japan.  Http :/ / en.wikipedia.org / Wiki / Malacca

History of Okinawans with China: http://www.uchinanchu.org/uchinanchu/history_early.htm

Excerpt:
Early History of The Ryukyu Kingdom and its Relationship with China and Japan
In many ways, the history of the Ryukyu Kingdom previous to the Meiji Restoration provides a depiction of an island kingdom that maintained a high degree of national sovereignty that was eventually shattered by colonial domination by the Satsuma-han in the 17th century. From the earliest times, the Ryukyu Kingdom occupied a privileged position to the south of Japan due largely to its trade and cultural links with China. Despite the fact that Japan had exercised brief contacts with the kingdom from the 7th to the 9th century, it's attempts to interfere with Ryukyuan domestic affairs virtually disappeared from Ryukyuan history until the 17th century. Until that time, the Ryukyu Kingdom maintained it's strongest economic and cultural ties with China, and remained in somewhat constant contact with the Asian continent, through China. From the 14th century on, the Ryukyu Kingdom developed a tributary relationship with China, which while symbolically signifying the Ryukyu Kingdom's status under China (as demonstrated in a pledge of loyalty made by the Ryukyuan King to the Chinese Emperor) basically maintained the Ryukyu Kingdom's independent status as a nation. In no way did China seek to interfere in Ryukyuan domestic affairs, but merely sought to maintain cordial relations with the kingdom (which by the 16th century had consolidated all of the islands in the archipelago under centralized monarchical rule, with it's capitol at Shuri castle on the island of Okinawa). China's preeminent status had several key implications for the Ryukyuan people. It provided legitimacy to the Ryukyuan Monarchy, and also established the manner in which Chinese ethics and cultural customs were able to enter into the Ryukyus. Most importantly, however, it's status as a tributary allowed the Ryukyu Kingdom access to trade with China, which would serve to boost the Ryukyus status in terms of mercantile affairs.

The whole world is gravitating towards China and it will be foolish not to take advantage of China's economic needs. Even Vietnam, a traditional enemy of China sees it fit to do more business with China. Vietnamese are building casinos to win over more Chinese money. ASEAN countries benefited greatly from trade with China. However Philippines is the odd man standing out with much less trade with China. As a result Philippines lose out to other ASEAN nations. Less Chinese investments, less Chinese tourists, less exports to China, so having a short sighted position with regard to China does more harm to one's own economy while the rest of the world prosper.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/12/us-vietnam-gaming-idUSBREA1B24T20140212

As for Okinawa economic interaction with China, there is not much Okinawans can export to China as land is scarce, there is no land to lease to China to cultivate agricultural produce. However both Chinese and Okinawans loves pork and Okinawa may have some islands specially set up for pork business to serve the Chinese market. Manufacturing is also not a strong possibility as Okinawa uses Yen making Okinawa not a very cost competitive place to do business.

However there is one advantage in perception that Okinawa can take advantage of:. The Made In Japan label command more respect and value than Made In China label This will become an opportunity for Chinese companies to move some of their semi finished products to Okinawa for final assembly, their produce to Okinawa for final inspection and packaging before selling to Japan itself and other countries. All this of course have to follow WTO labelling rules.

The other attractions of Okinawa to China such as tourism, second home, time share etc have being discussed elsewhere. The question is why are Okinawans so worried about China? I suspect this have to do with being brainwashed by constant news about how bad China is given her Communist political system and danger of Okinawa being attacked by China. But as I explained in my many post, the target is not Okinawa, but the Japanese military bases in Naha and elsewhere that put Okinawans at risk if China is forced to attack Okinawa if hell break loose. Keeping planes and ships grounded, destroyed at the airbases and port is a sure way to prevent danger to China, thus this is not unexpected in how the Chinese military could be thinking.

Is there a need for Chinese military to force herself to be present in Okinawa assuming Okinawa become independent? I have not seen any reason why this is necessary. Okinawa is not like Hong Kong where a Chinese military garrison is based. Hong Kong is clearly Chinese territory whereas Okinawa is not. Having Chinese military garrison in Hong Kong is necessary to show Hong Kong belongs to China. It does not make sense to say Hong Kong belongs to China and China cannot have a military base there.

Okinawa on the other hand have never being under China, just a tributary state. That does not permit China to have any military base in Okinawa ever. So I have to say many Okinawans are misled by Japan and US to think China is Bad Panda. There is no historical evidence of that.

About the Japanese Jeitai presence in Okinawa:. I can see how Okinawans see them as 'good boys' vs US misbehaving marines based in Okinawa However as I said the presence of Jeitai in Okinawa serve Okinawans no good purpose but the potential danger in a war as noted above. It only serve to ATTRACT ATTACK from China. Without the Jeitai there is no reason for China to come over and harm Okinawa.

As a guarantee perhaps some token US base presence in Okinawa and more in Guam may be necessary to keep China in check. The other thing is to encourage Chinese investments into Okinawa but limited to say 40% so as to avoid over dependency on China. This is the same scenario right now between Okinawans and mainland Japan relationship. Okinawans depends on over 90% of tourism from mainland Japan. Without mainland Japan tourists, Okinawans are in even worse shape. So Okinawans are held hostage by Tokyo if there is economic boycott of Okinawa.

The best solution then is to have a balanced economic mix dependency, so China and Japan both have about 40% influence, the rest from other countries.


「和訳版」Addressing The Okinawan Fear About China's Intention Over Their Land

沖縄への中国の意図を巡る、沖縄の人たちの恐れについて

多くの沖縄の人たちが、沖縄に対する、中国の軍事的目論見について深い疑念を抱いているということには、驚かされる。
このことは、沖縄の独立にとっては困ったことで、これまでに私がさんざん書いてきたように、独立後に自立して繁栄するためには、沖縄は中国に助けてもらわねばならないからだ。
事実として、中国が沖縄を必要とする以上に、沖縄が繁栄するためには、中国を必要とする。
好むと好まざるに関わらず、すべての道は中国に続く、なぜなら単純に、こんにちの中国の経済の強さと、大規模な市場ゆえ。

中国の歴史を見てみれば、力の行使は、常にソフトパワーによるものであり、軍を駐留させることによるハードパワーに基づくものではない。
中国は、軍隊を駐留させることが高くつきすぎるということや、地元の反感を買うということをよく知っている。
だから貿易や、小さな国を冊封することが、中国が力を反映させるためにいつもやってきたやり方である。
それが、中国が漢麗寶をサルタンと結婚させて、冊封国との間の関係を確立させようとしたりして、マラッカやマレーシアでやってきたことだ。
だから、中国に、沖縄に軍事駐留をしようという軍事的企みがあると思う人は、日米のプロパガンダに洗脳されている。
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malacca

沖縄と中国の歴史
http://www.uchinanchu.org/uchinanchu/history_early.htm

抜粋

琉球王国と、中国および日本との関係における初期の歴史

いろいろな意味で、琉球王国の末期から明治維新にかけての歴史は、高度に統治されていた島国の王国が、17世紀に行われた薩摩藩による植民地支配によって、台無しになっていく過程を示している。
琉球王国は、その初期から、文化や貿易によって中国と大いに結ばれていることにより、南日本で特権的な位置を占めていた。
7世紀から9世紀にかけて、日本が琉球の内政に干渉しようとして接触をした事実にも関わらず、その意図は、17世紀になるまで、琉球の歴史からは事実上消されていた。
それまでは、琉球王国は、中国との経済的文化的結びつきを非常に強く維持し、中国を通して、大陸とのなんらかの恒常的な接触を続けていた。
中国の冊封国としての地位(琉球王が、中国皇帝への帰属を誓うことにより)をはっきりと象徴するものである朝貢を、14世紀に琉球王国が始めてから、琉球王国は基本的に、独立国の地位を保ってきた。
あらゆる意味で、中国が琉球の内政に干渉しようとしたことはなく、単に琉球王国(16世紀には沖縄の首里城を首都とする君主制のもとに、琉球弧におけるすべての島々を併合した)との儀礼的な関係を求めたのである。
中国の圧倒的なステータスは、琉球人にとっては、いくつかの決定的な含みがあった。
それは琉球の君主制に合法性を与え、中国の倫理や文化習慣を琉球に取り入れるためのマナーを確立した。
最も重要なことは、とにかく、冊封国であることで、中国との貿易が許され、それが商業取引における琉球の地位を高めたことである。


世界中が中国の引力に引っ張られており、中国の経済的需要を生かさないのは馬鹿げている。
中国の旧敵であるベトナムでさえ、中国ともっとビジネスをしようとしている。
ベトナムは、もっと中国のお金を稼ぐために、カジノを作っている。
アセアンの国々は、中国との貿易でものすごく儲けている。
その結果として、フィリピンはほかのアセアンの国に遅れを取っている。
中国からの投資が少なければ、中国からの観光客が少なく、中国への輸出が少なくなり、だから中国との関わりが少なくなるほど、自国の経済に害を及ぼすということだ、よその国が栄えているというのに。

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/12/us-vietnam-gaming-idUSBREA1B24T20140212

中国と沖縄の経済的相互作用については、土地が狭いので、沖縄から中国へはそれほど輸出ができない、農業のために中国に提供するだけの土地がない。とにか く、中国人も沖縄の人も豚肉が好きだから、中国市場へ向けて、特定の島を豚肉ビジネスにするということも可能かもしれない。
工業も、あまり強い見込はない、沖縄が円を使用する以上は、ビジネスにおいてそれほどの競争力はない。

とにかく沖縄の強みをひとつだけ見つけることができる:メイドインジャパンのラベルは、メイドインチャイナラベルよりも価値と意味がある。
中国企業が、途中まで仕上げた製品を最終工程のために沖縄に送り、沖縄で最終点検と梱包作業をして日本やほかの国へ売るということができるかもしれない。
もちろんすべては、WTOの規定に沿ったものでなくてはならない。

観光とか、セカンドホームとか、タイムシェアとか、その他の沖縄の魅力については、ほかのところで述べたとおりだ。
問題は、なぜ沖縄の人たちが、そんなに中国を恐れているのかということだ。
私は、たぶん、共産主義体制の中国がどんなにひどいとか、沖縄に攻めて来るとかいうふうに、いつもニュースで洗脳されているからではないかと思う。
しかし、私がほかの記事でさんざん説明したように、目標は沖縄ではなく、中国が攻撃をしなければならなくなった場合に、有事の際に沖縄を危険に晒すこととなる那覇やほかの日本の軍事基地である。
空軍基地や港の航空機や船を動かさないこと、または壊すことが、中国への脅威を防ぐ確実な方法だから、中国の軍隊がそういうふうに考えていることは当然だ。

(中国は)沖縄を独立させるために、中国の軍隊を駐留させることが必要だと思っているだろうか?
私には、そうしなければならない理由が見つけられない。
沖縄は、香港のように、中国の軍隊が駐留するような場所ではない。
香港は明らかに中国の領土だが、沖縄はそうではない。
香港が中国の領土であることを示すためには、香港に駐留することが必要である。
香港に中国軍が駐留していなかったら、香港が中国に属しているとはいえない。

いっぽう沖縄は、中国の領土になったことはない、冊封国だっただけだ。
そのことによって、中国が沖縄に軍事基地を置くということは、認められない。
だから私は、多くの沖縄の人たちは、日米によって、中国が悪いパンダだと思わされていると言うよりほかない。
そういう歴史的証拠はない。

沖縄の自衛隊の存在について:沖縄の人たちが、沖縄のアメリカ海兵隊員と比べて、彼らをどんなに「優等生」だと思っているのか、私にはよくわかる。
とにかく前にも言ったように、沖縄に自衛隊がいることは、沖縄の人たちにとってよい結果にはならない、前に書いたように、戦争になれば危険に晒される可能性がある。
(自衛隊は)中国からの攻撃を招くだけである。
自衛隊がいなければ、中国が攻め寄せて、沖縄に害をもたらす理由はない。

保険として、たぶん、形だけの沖縄の米軍基地の存在と、もっとたくさんのグアムでの存在が、中国を抑止するためには必要かもしれない。
話は変わるが、中国からの沖縄への投資は、中国への依存を避けるために、40%までに抑えること。
これは沖縄と本土の関係についても、全く同じシナリオである。
沖縄は90%以上の観光客を本土に頼っている。
本土からの客がなければ、沖縄の状況はもっと悪くなる。
だから沖縄は、沖縄ボイコットが起きるかもしれないということで、東京に人質を取られている。

最も良い解決法は、経済の依存性をバランスさせることだ、だから中国と日本が40%
ずつの影響力を持ち、残りはほかの国から。