Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Many Okinawan Brainwashed With Fear About China Military Attack & Economic Consequences And The Autonomy Question

Many Okinawan Brainwashed With Fear About China Military Attack & Economic Consequences And The Autonomy Question

From my conversations it appears many, not all Okinawans are brainwashed into thinking China is a danger to their security. They are mistaken. Let me try to explain clearly below.

First question: Are you a Chinese agent? Hell No!

I am sure many people deliberately or from ignorance paint me as a Chinese agent. If you take the time to look around you will see I have no interest in siding with ANY country. For me Okinawa Independence is just a necessary step to bring Global Peace as the risk of war between China and Japan is very high with Jeitai in Naha and the smaller islands.

The driving motivation is my believe that Japanese leadership is unable to behave maturely and have to be constrained by US. Japanese leadership behavior in WWI, WWII, constant denials about Massacres, Comfort Women, this is not a mature country anybody can trust. Please be clear: .. I am not anti Japanese, I am anti Japanese leadership under LDP, Abe and his nationalists constituents There is no guarantee US can constrain Japan forever, thus removing Jeitai from Okinawa is necessary to defang Tokyo from military adventurism Remember I posted Jeitai if moved to Kyushu airbases makes it much harder for F15, even F35 to patrol Diaoyu / Senkaku due to range problem, so it is very problematic unless mid air refuelling and also carry less payload. Thus Tokyo insist on Naha and the smaller islands due to combat range considerations.

Briefly since Sept 2012 Japan have use intimidation, telling lies to hoodwink the public that China is the aggressor while she initiate the trouble and take very aggressive actions like sending eight fighter jets to intimidate a small Chinese propeller plane, forced a fire radar lock from Chinese destroyer on Jeitai navy ship only 2 km away near Miyako Strait and tell the world China is the aggressor. This is a setup I am exposing here as Japan do this in her home turf advantage. If Chinese navy don't warn off Japanese destroyer, it will be hit in less than 15 second given the short distance. The ADIZ by China in East China Sea last Nov followed by ten Japanese fighter jets with only two US jets. Furthermore Tokyo have plan to force down Chinese surveillance or military plane to land on the Miyako islands or other airstrips near Diaoyu / Senkaku. Luckily so far not yet implemented or this will surely start a war. I am saying Japan use aggressive tactics trying to intimidate China but will cause a war with her wrong headed aggressive stance. With the Nothing To Negotiate Stance over Diaoyu / Senkaku Islands, what do people expect China to do? Not coming to Diaoyu / Senkaku to assert sovereignty? So we are in this standoff today because of Tokyo's inflexible stance and aggressive behavior. Since Sept 2012 China have improve her navy and air force greatly making her more likely to react very strongly if Tokyo dare to do any foolish acts again. And of course if war breaks out, Okinawa will be caught in the middle. This then is going to be the price Okinawans have to pay for inaction.

Meanwhile as we can see Okinawa is caught in the middle and paying the price of near zero Chinese interest in her economy. I said in this world, it is the smaller countries like Okinawa ad Taiwanese people who holds the key to Global Peace but if they don't take action, it will be an uneasy poisoned atmosphere they have to live with forever. It is correct to say the bigger countries, be it US, China, Japan, they are all fearful of Taiwan, Okinawa if the locals have back bone and fight for their own rights and stay neutral. That is the only pathway for such small countries so as never to be militarily useful to any of them.

Okinawan relationship with China is clouded by politics and propaganda. This have serious consequence in the economic development of Okinawa.

From numerous observations and comments I learn many Okinawans have a Chinaphobia problem. What's that? That is a fancy word to describe a fear of the Chinese government. Okinawans fear China have ulterior motives to conquer their islands.

One can only ask why Okinawans got so brainwashed. Let me guess.
US and Japan are like tumor, having bases all over Okinawa. Now how do they keep their bases there in spite of Okinawans complaining about safety, loud noises, environmental damage? You guess it. One way is to divert attention towards the danger of Chinese invasion of their islands! This is classic psychological warfare and it is sad many unthinking Okinawans fall into this propaganda spread by Tokyo and US.

Some are just their own imagination of course, but there is no basis for their fear. There is no history of Chinese invasion into Okinawa.

There were two Chinese invasion of Japan but they were done by the Mongols who invaded and rule China for a few hundred years. So China herself was a victim of foreign invasion, at least a couple of times in recent history.

So I hope all Okinawans think clearer and don't fear a Chinese invasion. It won't happen anyway with US and Jeitai forces in Okinawa. If there is any war, it will happen over the seas and perhaps as part of Chinese Short Sharp War if there is surprise attack, it will be the Jeitai bases in Naha and elsewhere in the islands. This means people living in Naha just got to hope Chinese missiles are accurate enough not to stray and hit them.

At this stage China have 16 Beidou satellites out of 30 that is optimal for best accuracy. So the accuracy of targeting may not be as good now as say in 2020 when all are operational.

As I said many times, if the investment climate is not good, nobody overseas want to come to Okinawa to do business. You don't see hordes of foreigners from neighboring countries come to Okinawa to set up shop. Tokyo makes it hard deliberately I would say for Chinese business to come. They have to go to Fukuoka to do paperwork before coming to Okinawa. There is no Chinese consulate in Naha to facilitate trade from China. Evidence of lack of foreign investment can be seen with empty spaces in Nago and Naha FTZ Foreigners are just not interested under current Okinawa militarized atmosphere. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2002/09/13/national/okinawas-free-trade-zones-failing-to-attract - companies /

In order to get investments from China, I think Okinawa need to kick out the Jeitai, make Okinawa neutral. Only a neutral Okinawa will be an attractive place for business for people from Japan, China etc.

Furthermore Okinawa may need their own currency to be competitive. Okinawans probably don't need to import much stuff or travel abroad, so a weaker currency will improve Okinawan export advantage. Perhaps a starting currency pegged at 80% of the Yen will encourage more business to flow in from Tokyo and Beijing. Using Yen is not very competitive for Okinawan industries as Japan itself have being losing manufacturing jobs over the last couple of decade. I read Japan's manufacturing shrink from 15 million jobs to 10 millions roughly since 1992, so this can only be attributed to Yen value being too high. This was reason for Abenomics massive Yen printing to force down Yen value to improve export competitiveness. Okinawans can do it one better with their own fixed peg to Yen at 80% to start to ensure dynamic export advantage. Of course this is not etch in stone and should be revised over time to adapt to new situations.

Autonomy: Definition:
au · ton · o · my
noun \ O-Ta-nə-Me \
: The state of existing or acting separately from others
:. The power or right of a country, group, etc, to govern itself

The components are economic autonomy, military autonomy, legal / judiciary autonomy, civilian force autonomy, immigration border autonomy, cultural autonomy, currency / trade policies autonomy etc. I think Okinawa already have autonomy except for border and military aspect. I don't see what further improvements can be had for Okinawa without going full independence. Inaction equals current state of limbo, never a bright future, but no disastrous poverty either as Tokyo cannot afford a riot in Okinawa and have to send Yen down south annually to prop up the government.

There are talks of autonomy among Okinawans in lieu of outright independence. Let's examine what that means. Using Scotland as an example, she have her own Scottish Parliament (I am glad I saw that building while in Edinburgh 2009!) Governing all local issues in Scotland. Only finance and defence controlled by London. This is about same in Okinawa. Defense in Scotland under London, UK have nuclear sub bases, radar stations, air bases in Scotland. That is autonomy. Once independence, you can bet Scotland will kick out all these military bases. Without independence, just autonomy, foreign military bases will always be in your land. Your land will be target of attack in any war.

Okinawa already have self determination for local issues with her own Okinawa Assembly making local laws. So using Scotland as an example, Okinawa ALREADY have autonomy. There is no lost of self control over domestic matters in Okinawa. The only intrusion I have seen is the text book Tokyo try to force on Okinawan education. There was a complain last year in Tektomi school and Okinawa Assembly should override Tokyo to make sure she really have autonomy in this aspect as well.
So in my opinion autonomy is not enough. They don't solve the problem of war danger that if it ever occur will be from Jeitai forces due to nationalist policies from LDP Abe and his supporters.

There is not a chance Okinawans can have real peace and economic progress if they continue the status quo and just complain. It is time to break out of this status quo or Okinawa will never be a happy country for her citizens. It is your own destiny and if you don't take action nobody can help you.

Jeitai forces are smart. They are well behaving unlike Americans, they keep low profile, thus Okinawans see them as good guys. It is true the personnel are well behaving but it is the policies from Tokyo that is the danger as I explained, not the personnel themselves.

What about the American bases? I think Americans are just using Okinawa as their all year round vacation! They just go there to make some noise, Pacific Power Projection and they have tacit understanding with China to just 'play along'. Not so with Tokyo . Tokyo vs China is serious confrontation whereas US and China is 'share the space' as both need to accomodate each other. They are both mature enough to understand war is too costly and have rules to prevent them from happening.

When should Okinawans push Jeitai out of their land if they push for independence? I think as soon as Okinawa manage to get more trade investments from China but as I said, China won't come if you don't make her feel welcomed! Remember you do not have sufficient labor skill and cost advantage to encourage them to come in the first place so if they do come, it will be more like a politically motivated investments by their state run corporations.