War Game Simulation: There is nothing written here that is not imagined by Pentagon war planners. I just try to show the What If scenario that the military brass knows and they plan their policies accordingly.
This is a scenario that is purely speculative now. The reason I put this out now is to give hope to Okinawans that US will withdraw from Okinawa or at least reduce massively her presence there over the next few years because of the difficulty to protect her bases in Okinawa from Chinese attack.
As I said, one need to think like a military man in order understand why US and Japan insist in having their bases in Okinawa. Japanese forces in Naha and Ishigaki. That is why I have being emphasizing all along, forcing these forces out of Okinawa will increase chance for Global Peace when US and Japan are defanged, they are less likely to initiate a war. Please note China does not have a history of starting war, only being a victim of war. In particular Japan with an aggressive WWI & WWII war record, one cannot take a chance with Japanese behavior when under stress from China's constant patrolling around Diaoyu/Senkaku, Japan may choose to become confrontational instead of negotiating. In other words, Japan just don't know when to fold, to capitulate when the reality demands it and instead have the tendency to fight to the death out of silly nationalists attitudes. That is why uncivilize acts like Hara Kiri, Kamikaze only happen in Japanese culture and not from other people.
OK, the hypersonic glide missile weapon from China: this missile is capable of Mach 10 or more and move at unpredictable pattern making it near impossible to intercept. Let's assume China place this missile somewhere off her coast on a nearest island to Okinawa or in a secret location along the coastline. This could well be somewhere off Fujian province coastline or on an airbase near the coast. Let's say this is 720 miles away from Kadena, Okinawa.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WU-14
The Free Beacon said the test made China the third country after the Russian Federation and United States to have successfully tested a hypersonic delivery vehicle able to carry nuclear warheads at a speed above Mach 10 - or 12,359 kilometers per hour (7,675 mph).[3] China is also believed to be developing a hypersonic scramjet version that can be launched from air or ground. Notice it could be even faster than Mach 10, so five minutes from launch to destroy target in Okinawa may be even a bit generous.
Speed of sound is 767 miles per hour, so at Mach 10 min, and closer location, Okinawa may even be hit in five minutes. I am certain Chinese military planners will configure the optimal location to launch the missile to prevent any US or Japanese plane from getting airborne. In war seconds count!
Illustration:
Distance Between Changle and Naha Airport (OKA) is
1097.55 kilometers
681.99 miles
Distance Between Zhangzhou and Naha Airport (OKA) is 1020.78 kilometers
634.29 miles
http://disween.com/zhangzhou-07-cn/OKA
There could be even closer location than this airfield to Okinawa.
Since hypersonic glide missile is ballistic, add say 200 miles to go up and come down at an angle.
Let's say the hypersonic glide missile travels at 7200 miles per hour. This means in 6 minutes only, this missile will be able to hit Kadena Air Base in Okinawa! This will make it near impossible for US jets to take off. Some may be on standby, 24/7 during heightened crisis but most will not, and those that cannot take off will not after the runway is bombed.
This can also be applied to the Japanese airbase in Naha. Some may fly away, but most will not and be damaged at the base.
The only worry is if this hypersonic glide missile is not accurate enough and hit residential areas in Okinawa. War is dirty and collateral damage is to be expected.
China need more Beidou satellites to help navigate with greater precision to attack the air bases. This is forthcoming as China is furiously building up the network of Beidou satellites.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beidou_Navigation_Satellite_System
In the very near future, perhaps a couple of years or so, I think there will be an operational hypersonic glide missile able to attack Okinawa air bases.
This means US military planners will be quacking at their boots and will quietly reconfigure their military plans to move more US bases out of Okinawa.
The Henoko base relocation from Futenma will not mean much in the coming years. It is just a brave face US put up to show a strong posture against China. However I suspect it will be mostly use for drones and other vehicles and equipments that require less US military personnel. US always try to fight a high tech war, less military death the better. So Henoko if it is ever built will have much less US personnel or may just be abandoned given Chinese upcoming overwhelming missile capability to destroy them.
Again I want to remind readers, it is the speed of the missile and how fast the reaction time that affects how a military planner think. If the Pentagon planners see Chinese missiles coming in so very fast at under 7 minutes and at such a speed and angle of attack that makes it near impossible to defend, they will advice the US president to move US bases out of Okinawa.
So Okinawans should THANK China for her threatening missile to help them kick US off Okinawa and kick Japanese airbases out of Naha as well! If Japan refuse to leave or Okinawans don't want to declare independence, then those living in Naha may be in harms way due to potential collateral damage.
Chinese military planners may conduct Short Sharp War to surprise Japan/US to prevent her planes from taking off. Below shows the scenario where surprise may be necessary to prevent planes from taking off.
Default NATO QRA alert time is 15 minutes (in DEFCON 5), although the local CRC can lower that to ten (DEFCON 4), five (DEFCON 3) or even two minutes (DEFCON 2) depending on current state of affairs.
At 5 minutes (DEFCON 3), the engines would be running idle 24/7, at 2 minutes (DEFCON 2) there are pilots in the cockpit 24/7.
Read more: http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/air-force-aviation/how-fast-can-us-air-force-scramble-jets-10863/#ixzz2uV0skbw8
Ballistic Missile Range:https://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/missile/basics.htm
Short-Range Ballistic missile SRBM up to 1000 kilometers
However, GPS has significant application for an TBM outfitted with a post-boost vehicle (bus) or attitude control module that navigates a reentry vehicle to a more accurate trajectory.
More Beidou is key to accuracy
Chinese hypersonic glide missile WU 14 when used against Okinawa targets probably Theatre Ballistic Missile type with distance as short as 186 miles and fly lower than ICBM. So it seems if China can find a spot outside 200 miles EEZ off Okinawa, this missile can fly even faster to reach target. See photo in space.com web link.
At altitudes above 120 km (75 mi), atmospheric density is generally insufficient to cause the onset of ablation.
http://www.space.com/19601-how-intercontinental-ballistic-missiles-work-infographic.html This site offer range example TBM that is what the hypersonic glide missile will be used in this category.
