The 95% Okinawan Independence Theory Money Changes Everything!
Recently I was told by some Okinawan activists that 95% Okinawans want
independence. Outright independence, not just autonomy. They want a
clean break from Tokyo.
But as we see, evidence is scant. There is little sign of independence activism that point to such numbers.
Why is this so? I suspect it is not because Okinawans do not want
independence. The reason I see is they have almost given up hope.
Back in the sixties and seventies, there were massive protest. However
over the years many Okinawans feel this is a lost cause. They think they
are overwhelmed by political and Economic Intimidation from Tokyo and
Washington.
Now this is some forty odd years later and the
younger generations don't know what their parents struggle and fight for
during those years. As in other countries, these younger generations
are the smartphone generations and are more distracted by computer
games, social networking than doing the hard job of fighting for their
independence.
But in any case they must have being instilled
knowledge of independence fight by their parents and as they grow older
they understand the importance to fight for their own destiny. But the
question have always being economic isn't it?
How do want fight
for independence without money? There must be money to help measure the
true feelings of Okinawans. Money to help them express themselves.
There are many poor Okinawans. With almost the highest unemployment rate
in Japan this can only mean there are many Okinawans with no money.
With no money they basically depend on handouts from friends, and
relatives as well as basic government financial support. There is hardly
any money for them to go from point A to point B if they want to do
something like show support in a demonstration for independence. This
then give an example of a group of Okinawans who may support
independence but are not counted.
In order to count them, money
is needed to help provide free transportation to bring them to an
independence rally I am pretty sure the true number of people wishing to
become independent is very very high They need at least two things: ..
Hope and Money .
This is not to say money should be used to buy
Okinawan dignity. They should decide independence on their own free
will. Money is just an enabler to help flush out their true feelings.
Hope will be rekindled after they see more people join independence
rally. This is basically natural Herd Instinct. Many people are like
sheeple, they just follow the crowd. In this case, when the independence
movement grows bigger, those on the sideline will join too. It is a
self feeding flame that will swell to a giant inferno. This will truly
show the will of the Okinawans for independence.
I believe the
latent wish for independence is there among Okinawans. They just need a
booster financing to fund the movement. If you are able and willing to
support Okinawa independence please contact Yara to help fund his
organization.
Meanwhile enjoy Cindy Lauper's song here.
http://youtu.be/3aK-UjR3Oj4
http://youtu.be/202o_JS7E04
This Is Wild!
Ukraine Crimea illustration: .. Just like Crimea, Okinawans are a
distinct race, different from Yamato Japanese There is resentment from
being governed by current government in Ukraine as their economic
condition is a failure and seeking to be part of Russia is their best
option. For Okinawans , you seek nobody, not China, not USA, but you
stand on your own feet, like Taiwan, another island nation. You
basically need to have a competitive currency of your own to help with
exports. You don't need to depend on just tourism.
Crimea's
Moscow-backed leaders declared an overwhelming 96.7% vote in favor of
leaving Ukraine and being annexed by Russia in a referendum that Western
powers said was illegal and will bring sanctions. Turnout was 83%
Okinawans can make such a statement too to be independent instead.
Let's see what Tokyo do next. Once the will of the people have spoken,
it will be very hard for Tokyo to ignore their will to leave even if
DIET declare illegal. I think Tokyo will not dare to punish Okinawa
economically though there may be short term threat. It will be disaster
if Tokyo proceed to threaten Okinawa as Okinawans can threaten back to
be part of China or US or whatever game she can play for leverage. In
any case the international community will have a sympathetic ear for
Okinawans and will make sure she does not fail economically.
If
Tokyo continue to ignore Okinawan will, Okinawa should start to issue
new currency and do own self border policing as first step of
sovereignty. Jeitai should be forced out, road blockage, made
unwelcomed.
http://www.uchinanchu.org/uchinanchu/history_reversion.htm
Visit site to make a donation.
http://www.bekkoame.ne.jp/i/a-001/
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Many Okinawan Brainwashed With Fear About China Military Attack & Economic Consequences And The Autonomy Question
Many Okinawan Brainwashed With Fear About China Military Attack & Economic Consequences And The Autonomy Question
From my conversations it appears many, not all Okinawans are brainwashed into thinking China is a danger to their security. They are mistaken. Let me try to explain clearly below.
First question: Are you a Chinese agent? Hell No!
I am sure many people deliberately or from ignorance paint me as a Chinese agent. If you take the time to look around you will see I have no interest in siding with ANY country. For me Okinawa Independence is just a necessary step to bring Global Peace as the risk of war between China and Japan is very high with Jeitai in Naha and the smaller islands.
The driving motivation is my believe that Japanese leadership is unable to behave maturely and have to be constrained by US. Japanese leadership behavior in WWI, WWII, constant denials about Massacres, Comfort Women, this is not a mature country anybody can trust. Please be clear: .. I am not anti Japanese, I am anti Japanese leadership under LDP, Abe and his nationalists constituents There is no guarantee US can constrain Japan forever, thus removing Jeitai from Okinawa is necessary to defang Tokyo from military adventurism Remember I posted Jeitai if moved to Kyushu airbases makes it much harder for F15, even F35 to patrol Diaoyu / Senkaku due to range problem, so it is very problematic unless mid air refuelling and also carry less payload. Thus Tokyo insist on Naha and the smaller islands due to combat range considerations.
Briefly since Sept 2012 Japan have use intimidation, telling lies to hoodwink the public that China is the aggressor while she initiate the trouble and take very aggressive actions like sending eight fighter jets to intimidate a small Chinese propeller plane, forced a fire radar lock from Chinese destroyer on Jeitai navy ship only 2 km away near Miyako Strait and tell the world China is the aggressor. This is a setup I am exposing here as Japan do this in her home turf advantage. If Chinese navy don't warn off Japanese destroyer, it will be hit in less than 15 second given the short distance. The ADIZ by China in East China Sea last Nov followed by ten Japanese fighter jets with only two US jets. Furthermore Tokyo have plan to force down Chinese surveillance or military plane to land on the Miyako islands or other airstrips near Diaoyu / Senkaku. Luckily so far not yet implemented or this will surely start a war. I am saying Japan use aggressive tactics trying to intimidate China but will cause a war with her wrong headed aggressive stance. With the Nothing To Negotiate Stance over Diaoyu / Senkaku Islands, what do people expect China to do? Not coming to Diaoyu / Senkaku to assert sovereignty? So we are in this standoff today because of Tokyo's inflexible stance and aggressive behavior. Since Sept 2012 China have improve her navy and air force greatly making her more likely to react very strongly if Tokyo dare to do any foolish acts again. And of course if war breaks out, Okinawa will be caught in the middle. This then is going to be the price Okinawans have to pay for inaction.
Meanwhile as we can see Okinawa is caught in the middle and paying the price of near zero Chinese interest in her economy. I said in this world, it is the smaller countries like Okinawa ad Taiwanese people who holds the key to Global Peace but if they don't take action, it will be an uneasy poisoned atmosphere they have to live with forever. It is correct to say the bigger countries, be it US, China, Japan, they are all fearful of Taiwan, Okinawa if the locals have back bone and fight for their own rights and stay neutral. That is the only pathway for such small countries so as never to be militarily useful to any of them.
Okinawan relationship with China is clouded by politics and propaganda. This have serious consequence in the economic development of Okinawa.
From numerous observations and comments I learn many Okinawans have a Chinaphobia problem. What's that? That is a fancy word to describe a fear of the Chinese government. Okinawans fear China have ulterior motives to conquer their islands.
One can only ask why Okinawans got so brainwashed. Let me guess.
US and Japan are like tumor, having bases all over Okinawa. Now how do they keep their bases there in spite of Okinawans complaining about safety, loud noises, environmental damage? You guess it. One way is to divert attention towards the danger of Chinese invasion of their islands! This is classic psychological warfare and it is sad many unthinking Okinawans fall into this propaganda spread by Tokyo and US.
Some are just their own imagination of course, but there is no basis for their fear. There is no history of Chinese invasion into Okinawa.
There were two Chinese invasion of Japan but they were done by the Mongols who invaded and rule China for a few hundred years. So China herself was a victim of foreign invasion, at least a couple of times in recent history.
So I hope all Okinawans think clearer and don't fear a Chinese invasion. It won't happen anyway with US and Jeitai forces in Okinawa. If there is any war, it will happen over the seas and perhaps as part of Chinese Short Sharp War if there is surprise attack, it will be the Jeitai bases in Naha and elsewhere in the islands. This means people living in Naha just got to hope Chinese missiles are accurate enough not to stray and hit them.
At this stage China have 16 Beidou satellites out of 30 that is optimal for best accuracy. So the accuracy of targeting may not be as good now as say in 2020 when all are operational.
As I said many times, if the investment climate is not good, nobody overseas want to come to Okinawa to do business. You don't see hordes of foreigners from neighboring countries come to Okinawa to set up shop. Tokyo makes it hard deliberately I would say for Chinese business to come. They have to go to Fukuoka to do paperwork before coming to Okinawa. There is no Chinese consulate in Naha to facilitate trade from China. Evidence of lack of foreign investment can be seen with empty spaces in Nago and Naha FTZ Foreigners are just not interested under current Okinawa militarized atmosphere. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2002/09/13/national/okinawas-free-trade-zones-failing-to-attract - companies /
In order to get investments from China, I think Okinawa need to kick out the Jeitai, make Okinawa neutral. Only a neutral Okinawa will be an attractive place for business for people from Japan, China etc.
Furthermore Okinawa may need their own currency to be competitive. Okinawans probably don't need to import much stuff or travel abroad, so a weaker currency will improve Okinawan export advantage. Perhaps a starting currency pegged at 80% of the Yen will encourage more business to flow in from Tokyo and Beijing. Using Yen is not very competitive for Okinawan industries as Japan itself have being losing manufacturing jobs over the last couple of decade. I read Japan's manufacturing shrink from 15 million jobs to 10 millions roughly since 1992, so this can only be attributed to Yen value being too high. This was reason for Abenomics massive Yen printing to force down Yen value to improve export competitiveness. Okinawans can do it one better with their own fixed peg to Yen at 80% to start to ensure dynamic export advantage. Of course this is not etch in stone and should be revised over time to adapt to new situations.
Autonomy: Definition:
au · ton · o · my
noun \ O-Ta-nə-Me \
: The state of existing or acting separately from others
:. The power or right of a country, group, etc, to govern itself
The components are economic autonomy, military autonomy, legal / judiciary autonomy, civilian force autonomy, immigration border autonomy, cultural autonomy, currency / trade policies autonomy etc. I think Okinawa already have autonomy except for border and military aspect. I don't see what further improvements can be had for Okinawa without going full independence. Inaction equals current state of limbo, never a bright future, but no disastrous poverty either as Tokyo cannot afford a riot in Okinawa and have to send Yen down south annually to prop up the government.
There are talks of autonomy among Okinawans in lieu of outright independence. Let's examine what that means. Using Scotland as an example, she have her own Scottish Parliament (I am glad I saw that building while in Edinburgh 2009!) Governing all local issues in Scotland. Only finance and defence controlled by London. This is about same in Okinawa. Defense in Scotland under London, UK have nuclear sub bases, radar stations, air bases in Scotland. That is autonomy. Once independence, you can bet Scotland will kick out all these military bases. Without independence, just autonomy, foreign military bases will always be in your land. Your land will be target of attack in any war.
Okinawa already have self determination for local issues with her own Okinawa Assembly making local laws. So using Scotland as an example, Okinawa ALREADY have autonomy. There is no lost of self control over domestic matters in Okinawa. The only intrusion I have seen is the text book Tokyo try to force on Okinawan education. There was a complain last year in Tektomi school and Okinawa Assembly should override Tokyo to make sure she really have autonomy in this aspect as well.
So in my opinion autonomy is not enough. They don't solve the problem of war danger that if it ever occur will be from Jeitai forces due to nationalist policies from LDP Abe and his supporters.
There is not a chance Okinawans can have real peace and economic progress if they continue the status quo and just complain. It is time to break out of this status quo or Okinawa will never be a happy country for her citizens. It is your own destiny and if you don't take action nobody can help you.
Jeitai forces are smart. They are well behaving unlike Americans, they keep low profile, thus Okinawans see them as good guys. It is true the personnel are well behaving but it is the policies from Tokyo that is the danger as I explained, not the personnel themselves.
What about the American bases? I think Americans are just using Okinawa as their all year round vacation! They just go there to make some noise, Pacific Power Projection and they have tacit understanding with China to just 'play along'. Not so with Tokyo . Tokyo vs China is serious confrontation whereas US and China is 'share the space' as both need to accomodate each other. They are both mature enough to understand war is too costly and have rules to prevent them from happening.
When should Okinawans push Jeitai out of their land if they push for independence? I think as soon as Okinawa manage to get more trade investments from China but as I said, China won't come if you don't make her feel welcomed! Remember you do not have sufficient labor skill and cost advantage to encourage them to come in the first place so if they do come, it will be more like a politically motivated investments by their state run corporations.
From my conversations it appears many, not all Okinawans are brainwashed into thinking China is a danger to their security. They are mistaken. Let me try to explain clearly below.
First question: Are you a Chinese agent? Hell No!
I am sure many people deliberately or from ignorance paint me as a Chinese agent. If you take the time to look around you will see I have no interest in siding with ANY country. For me Okinawa Independence is just a necessary step to bring Global Peace as the risk of war between China and Japan is very high with Jeitai in Naha and the smaller islands.
The driving motivation is my believe that Japanese leadership is unable to behave maturely and have to be constrained by US. Japanese leadership behavior in WWI, WWII, constant denials about Massacres, Comfort Women, this is not a mature country anybody can trust. Please be clear: .. I am not anti Japanese, I am anti Japanese leadership under LDP, Abe and his nationalists constituents There is no guarantee US can constrain Japan forever, thus removing Jeitai from Okinawa is necessary to defang Tokyo from military adventurism Remember I posted Jeitai if moved to Kyushu airbases makes it much harder for F15, even F35 to patrol Diaoyu / Senkaku due to range problem, so it is very problematic unless mid air refuelling and also carry less payload. Thus Tokyo insist on Naha and the smaller islands due to combat range considerations.
Briefly since Sept 2012 Japan have use intimidation, telling lies to hoodwink the public that China is the aggressor while she initiate the trouble and take very aggressive actions like sending eight fighter jets to intimidate a small Chinese propeller plane, forced a fire radar lock from Chinese destroyer on Jeitai navy ship only 2 km away near Miyako Strait and tell the world China is the aggressor. This is a setup I am exposing here as Japan do this in her home turf advantage. If Chinese navy don't warn off Japanese destroyer, it will be hit in less than 15 second given the short distance. The ADIZ by China in East China Sea last Nov followed by ten Japanese fighter jets with only two US jets. Furthermore Tokyo have plan to force down Chinese surveillance or military plane to land on the Miyako islands or other airstrips near Diaoyu / Senkaku. Luckily so far not yet implemented or this will surely start a war. I am saying Japan use aggressive tactics trying to intimidate China but will cause a war with her wrong headed aggressive stance. With the Nothing To Negotiate Stance over Diaoyu / Senkaku Islands, what do people expect China to do? Not coming to Diaoyu / Senkaku to assert sovereignty? So we are in this standoff today because of Tokyo's inflexible stance and aggressive behavior. Since Sept 2012 China have improve her navy and air force greatly making her more likely to react very strongly if Tokyo dare to do any foolish acts again. And of course if war breaks out, Okinawa will be caught in the middle. This then is going to be the price Okinawans have to pay for inaction.
Meanwhile as we can see Okinawa is caught in the middle and paying the price of near zero Chinese interest in her economy. I said in this world, it is the smaller countries like Okinawa ad Taiwanese people who holds the key to Global Peace but if they don't take action, it will be an uneasy poisoned atmosphere they have to live with forever. It is correct to say the bigger countries, be it US, China, Japan, they are all fearful of Taiwan, Okinawa if the locals have back bone and fight for their own rights and stay neutral. That is the only pathway for such small countries so as never to be militarily useful to any of them.
Okinawan relationship with China is clouded by politics and propaganda. This have serious consequence in the economic development of Okinawa.
From numerous observations and comments I learn many Okinawans have a Chinaphobia problem. What's that? That is a fancy word to describe a fear of the Chinese government. Okinawans fear China have ulterior motives to conquer their islands.
One can only ask why Okinawans got so brainwashed. Let me guess.
US and Japan are like tumor, having bases all over Okinawa. Now how do they keep their bases there in spite of Okinawans complaining about safety, loud noises, environmental damage? You guess it. One way is to divert attention towards the danger of Chinese invasion of their islands! This is classic psychological warfare and it is sad many unthinking Okinawans fall into this propaganda spread by Tokyo and US.
Some are just their own imagination of course, but there is no basis for their fear. There is no history of Chinese invasion into Okinawa.
There were two Chinese invasion of Japan but they were done by the Mongols who invaded and rule China for a few hundred years. So China herself was a victim of foreign invasion, at least a couple of times in recent history.
So I hope all Okinawans think clearer and don't fear a Chinese invasion. It won't happen anyway with US and Jeitai forces in Okinawa. If there is any war, it will happen over the seas and perhaps as part of Chinese Short Sharp War if there is surprise attack, it will be the Jeitai bases in Naha and elsewhere in the islands. This means people living in Naha just got to hope Chinese missiles are accurate enough not to stray and hit them.
At this stage China have 16 Beidou satellites out of 30 that is optimal for best accuracy. So the accuracy of targeting may not be as good now as say in 2020 when all are operational.
As I said many times, if the investment climate is not good, nobody overseas want to come to Okinawa to do business. You don't see hordes of foreigners from neighboring countries come to Okinawa to set up shop. Tokyo makes it hard deliberately I would say for Chinese business to come. They have to go to Fukuoka to do paperwork before coming to Okinawa. There is no Chinese consulate in Naha to facilitate trade from China. Evidence of lack of foreign investment can be seen with empty spaces in Nago and Naha FTZ Foreigners are just not interested under current Okinawa militarized atmosphere. http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2002/09/13/national/okinawas-free-trade-zones-failing-to-attract - companies /
In order to get investments from China, I think Okinawa need to kick out the Jeitai, make Okinawa neutral. Only a neutral Okinawa will be an attractive place for business for people from Japan, China etc.
Furthermore Okinawa may need their own currency to be competitive. Okinawans probably don't need to import much stuff or travel abroad, so a weaker currency will improve Okinawan export advantage. Perhaps a starting currency pegged at 80% of the Yen will encourage more business to flow in from Tokyo and Beijing. Using Yen is not very competitive for Okinawan industries as Japan itself have being losing manufacturing jobs over the last couple of decade. I read Japan's manufacturing shrink from 15 million jobs to 10 millions roughly since 1992, so this can only be attributed to Yen value being too high. This was reason for Abenomics massive Yen printing to force down Yen value to improve export competitiveness. Okinawans can do it one better with their own fixed peg to Yen at 80% to start to ensure dynamic export advantage. Of course this is not etch in stone and should be revised over time to adapt to new situations.
Autonomy: Definition:
au · ton · o · my
noun \ O-Ta-nə-Me \
: The state of existing or acting separately from others
:. The power or right of a country, group, etc, to govern itself
The components are economic autonomy, military autonomy, legal / judiciary autonomy, civilian force autonomy, immigration border autonomy, cultural autonomy, currency / trade policies autonomy etc. I think Okinawa already have autonomy except for border and military aspect. I don't see what further improvements can be had for Okinawa without going full independence. Inaction equals current state of limbo, never a bright future, but no disastrous poverty either as Tokyo cannot afford a riot in Okinawa and have to send Yen down south annually to prop up the government.
There are talks of autonomy among Okinawans in lieu of outright independence. Let's examine what that means. Using Scotland as an example, she have her own Scottish Parliament (I am glad I saw that building while in Edinburgh 2009!) Governing all local issues in Scotland. Only finance and defence controlled by London. This is about same in Okinawa. Defense in Scotland under London, UK have nuclear sub bases, radar stations, air bases in Scotland. That is autonomy. Once independence, you can bet Scotland will kick out all these military bases. Without independence, just autonomy, foreign military bases will always be in your land. Your land will be target of attack in any war.
Okinawa already have self determination for local issues with her own Okinawa Assembly making local laws. So using Scotland as an example, Okinawa ALREADY have autonomy. There is no lost of self control over domestic matters in Okinawa. The only intrusion I have seen is the text book Tokyo try to force on Okinawan education. There was a complain last year in Tektomi school and Okinawa Assembly should override Tokyo to make sure she really have autonomy in this aspect as well.
So in my opinion autonomy is not enough. They don't solve the problem of war danger that if it ever occur will be from Jeitai forces due to nationalist policies from LDP Abe and his supporters.
There is not a chance Okinawans can have real peace and economic progress if they continue the status quo and just complain. It is time to break out of this status quo or Okinawa will never be a happy country for her citizens. It is your own destiny and if you don't take action nobody can help you.
Jeitai forces are smart. They are well behaving unlike Americans, they keep low profile, thus Okinawans see them as good guys. It is true the personnel are well behaving but it is the policies from Tokyo that is the danger as I explained, not the personnel themselves.
What about the American bases? I think Americans are just using Okinawa as their all year round vacation! They just go there to make some noise, Pacific Power Projection and they have tacit understanding with China to just 'play along'. Not so with Tokyo . Tokyo vs China is serious confrontation whereas US and China is 'share the space' as both need to accomodate each other. They are both mature enough to understand war is too costly and have rules to prevent them from happening.
When should Okinawans push Jeitai out of their land if they push for independence? I think as soon as Okinawa manage to get more trade investments from China but as I said, China won't come if you don't make her feel welcomed! Remember you do not have sufficient labor skill and cost advantage to encourage them to come in the first place so if they do come, it will be more like a politically motivated investments by their state run corporations.
Sunday, March 2, 2014
「和訳版」Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands Inclusion In Okinawa Independence Two Step Strategy 沖縄独立運動に尖閣諸島を含めることについての２ステップ
尖閣諸島は、沖縄独立運動において、琉球国に含めなけれ
二段階のステップこそが、軍事的アドバンテージにおいて
もしも尖閣が、沖縄独立に記録されなければ、領土争いは
技術の進歩によって、戦闘機やミサイルの距離やスピード
現在日本が領土としている尖閣を、沖縄独立の主張に含め
沖縄も（尖閣）諸島に対して、所有の根拠があるだろうが
だからこそ、（尖閣）諸島付近での経済的権利を分け合う
このことは、独立運動家たちは早い段階で理解していなけ
ところで、新琉球国の北限は、奄美から始まっていなけれ
これは東京が新たな空軍基地を作ることを阻止するために
独立運動の初期段階では、尖閣に対する領土権を主張した
ともあれ、中国はおそらく、独立沖縄が尖閣を共有すると
それどころか中国は、沖縄の独立に大満足だろう、だから
ただひとり東京だけが、沖縄の扱いに注意しなければなら
水面下で、独立後の（尖閣）諸島における軍事的経済的調
だから第一段階としては、尖閣を沖縄のコントロール下に
二段階目は、どんな軍隊の存在も許さないことによって、
経済的権利は、この二段階目で交渉すること。
台湾ももちろん怒るだろう、しかし領土問題に関しては、
沖縄の人たちの目的は、文化の保存と、東京の狡猾な経済
尖閣諸島を独立琉球国の範囲内に含めることは必要であり
尖閣を巡る、沖縄独立運家と、中国・日本との交渉過程に
（交渉は）おそらく独立運動が盛り上がって、東京と北京
沖縄の人たちは、中国と日本の合意事項には関係なく、2
沖縄のアクセス権について、制限が設けられるべきではな
沖縄の人たちが、尖閣諸島を中立的に保持している限り、
freeokin.blogspot.com
Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands Inclusion In Okinawa Independence Two Step Strategy
Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands Inclusion In Okinawa Independence Two Step Strategy
Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands must be included in Ryukus nation as part of the Okinawan independence pursuit.
The Two Step Strategy is the only practical way to keep Diaoyu/Senkaku out of the hand of Japan and China for military advantage. If Diaoyu/Senkaku is not included in Okinawa independence document, it will leave the islands dispute unresolved and will continue risking war between China and Japan/US. Technology advances improving jets and missile range and speed perhaps a decade away may make Okinawa irrelevant to Japan/US but the lingering disputes will still cause potential war between China and Japan/US even without Okinawa bases.
It is necessary to keep current Japanese claim on Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in Okinawan Independence pursuit. Okinawan also have their own claim to the islands but perhaps not as strong as China or Japan. For this reason it is necessary to share the economic rights around the islands to reach a satisfactory arrangement among the parties. This should be understood early on by independence activists as they are destined to live with China and Japan and thus need to compromise on this issue.
BTW the northern reach of the new Ryukus nation should start from Amami. This also help prevent Tokyo from building a new airbase there.
In the early stage of the independence movement, both China and Tokyo will be hostile to Okinawans due to their claims on Diaoyu/Senkaku. However China will probably be less antagonistic when the post independent Okinawa share Diayou/Senkaku with her. Moreover China will be very happy to see Okinawa independent, so she will not complain too much after she see the big picture. Only Tokyo got to be careful how she treat Okinawans as she have the most to lose post independence if she mistreat Okinawans and Okinawans may not give her any share at all.
It does not matter China and Japan are both upset as long as behind the scene tacit agreement is made with them about post independence islands military, economic arrangements. So the first step is to have Diaoyu/Senkaku under Okinawan control. The second step is to neutralise the military usefulness by not allowing any military presence there, perhaps with UN forces on islands if needed. Economic rights to be negotiated as part of this second step.
Taiwan ROC will also be upset of course, but since she is not an active player in the dispute she should probably have less share to the resources, about like the fishery rights Tokyo give her now.
While the aspiration of Okinawans are cultural preservation and to get away from economic oppression from Tokyo via subtle economic colonialism strategy and other second class treatments, Okinawans must also think of the big global picture in their independence pursuit. It is necessary to include Diaoyu/Senkaku islands within the border of an independent Ryukus nation as the only way to neutralise it's military importance for the big powers around her.
There should be quiet behind the scene negotiation between the Okinawa independence activists with China and Japan regarding Diaoyu/Senkaku and reward those who treat a newly created Ryukus nation with respect and dignity. This probably can only be done at the later stage when the independence movement gather steam and is taken seriously by both Tokyo and Beijing.
Okinawans must have full access to the 200 miles EEZ fishery rights and the oil/gas drilling as well regardless of the agreements with China and Japan. There shall be no restrictions to Okinawan access.
By keeping Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in Okinawan hand and maintaining neutrality, there is no more military consideration by Japan/US with regard to danger of China using these islands to hide her submarines there and occupy the islands militarily to threaten Taiwan or Japan.
Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands must be included in Ryukus nation as part of the Okinawan independence pursuit.
The Two Step Strategy is the only practical way to keep Diaoyu/Senkaku out of the hand of Japan and China for military advantage. If Diaoyu/Senkaku is not included in Okinawa independence document, it will leave the islands dispute unresolved and will continue risking war between China and Japan/US. Technology advances improving jets and missile range and speed perhaps a decade away may make Okinawa irrelevant to Japan/US but the lingering disputes will still cause potential war between China and Japan/US even without Okinawa bases.
It is necessary to keep current Japanese claim on Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in Okinawan Independence pursuit. Okinawan also have their own claim to the islands but perhaps not as strong as China or Japan. For this reason it is necessary to share the economic rights around the islands to reach a satisfactory arrangement among the parties. This should be understood early on by independence activists as they are destined to live with China and Japan and thus need to compromise on this issue.
BTW the northern reach of the new Ryukus nation should start from Amami. This also help prevent Tokyo from building a new airbase there.
In the early stage of the independence movement, both China and Tokyo will be hostile to Okinawans due to their claims on Diaoyu/Senkaku. However China will probably be less antagonistic when the post independent Okinawa share Diayou/Senkaku with her. Moreover China will be very happy to see Okinawa independent, so she will not complain too much after she see the big picture. Only Tokyo got to be careful how she treat Okinawans as she have the most to lose post independence if she mistreat Okinawans and Okinawans may not give her any share at all.
It does not matter China and Japan are both upset as long as behind the scene tacit agreement is made with them about post independence islands military, economic arrangements. So the first step is to have Diaoyu/Senkaku under Okinawan control. The second step is to neutralise the military usefulness by not allowing any military presence there, perhaps with UN forces on islands if needed. Economic rights to be negotiated as part of this second step.
Taiwan ROC will also be upset of course, but since she is not an active player in the dispute she should probably have less share to the resources, about like the fishery rights Tokyo give her now.
While the aspiration of Okinawans are cultural preservation and to get away from economic oppression from Tokyo via subtle economic colonialism strategy and other second class treatments, Okinawans must also think of the big global picture in their independence pursuit. It is necessary to include Diaoyu/Senkaku islands within the border of an independent Ryukus nation as the only way to neutralise it's military importance for the big powers around her.
There should be quiet behind the scene negotiation between the Okinawa independence activists with China and Japan regarding Diaoyu/Senkaku and reward those who treat a newly created Ryukus nation with respect and dignity. This probably can only be done at the later stage when the independence movement gather steam and is taken seriously by both Tokyo and Beijing.
Okinawans must have full access to the 200 miles EEZ fishery rights and the oil/gas drilling as well regardless of the agreements with China and Japan. There shall be no restrictions to Okinawan access.
By keeping Diaoyu/Senkaku islands in Okinawan hand and maintaining neutrality, there is no more military consideration by Japan/US with regard to danger of China using these islands to hide her submarines there and occupy the islands militarily to threaten Taiwan or Japan.
Friday, February 28, 2014
Dirty Politics, Nakaima Question, Funding, Tainted Independence Pursuit
Politics is a dirty business. One should not expect politicians to be unblemished. Over the course of their careers, some will change party, even sell out their constituents for own selfish gains. Self preservation is usually the culprit. There are very few politicians who are altruistic. We see politicians changing party all the time in the US, from Democratic to Republican and vice versa. Sometimes to become independent, or form another party which is quite rare.
So given the nature of reality in the political world, one should not be surprised at the flip flop position of Governor Nakaima. His job is supposed to be to look out for the Okinawa Prefecture. Somehow under intense arm twisting by Tokyo and Washington, he caved in, perhaps he think he can sell a bigger budget from Tokyo sweetener in exchange for sacrificing Henoko.
This very same Governor Nakaima can also be twisted back to go against Tokyo if enough pressure is put on him!
First of all, we all have to remember that Governor Nakaima was elected to serve Okinawa Prefecture. Somewhere along the way, he was pressured to serve his LDP party first which is for Henoko base relocation of Futenma, at the expense of his initial priority to serve Okinawans first.
What happened is history. Governor Nakaima got the extra budget promise of $3 billion plus per year for Okinawa in exchange for Henoko relocation. He might be finessing his strategy to allow the land reclaimation to start and hope the local mayor Inaime do the dirty work for him to stop the relocation. He is condemned by many Okinawans and is considered a spent political force there.
However what if Governor Nakaima can be used by Okinawan independence activists to gather more support for independence? What if he throw his weight to the independence movement and get his fellow LDP members in Okinawan Assembly to pass the Independence Bill? He will of course make Tokyo very angry, perhaps US too. However it does not matter to him anymore. He have to preserve his legacy among the Okinawan people whom he owes First Allegiance. I am sure in his heart he is a pure Okinawan and want to look out for Okinawans. However he was in a very difficult situation and perhaps he have miscalculated by allowing Henoko land reclaimation. Or perhaps he was subtly forced into doing it. We never know how dirty Tokyo politics work. He was in Tokyo supposedly for medical trip when he make the decision. Was there coercion? We never know.
Anyway, I am pretty sure, Gov Nakaima want to find a way to redeem himself and the opportunity to redeem himself will only happen if Okinawans welcome his support for Okinawa Independence. As I said, politics is dirty, people change sides. It is important not to take it personally and have a visionary discussion with Governor Nakaima to try to influence him to support Okinawa Independence. His legacy is at stake and I believe he will welcome his participation in Okinawa Independence if only someone ask him nicely!
Once he decide to publicly announce his support for independence, I am pretty sure the current kindling of independence movement will become a flame that will gather international attention. Headline News: Governor Nakaima, the guy who approve Henoko support Okinawa Independence! One publicity leads to another, changing this small flame into a bigger fire. With more visibility, more Okinawans will see HOPE that independence is a Real Possibility! This is also the Golden Time to solicit Funding to help Okinawans campaign for their independence. It cost money, lots of money to help make this a successful movement. I am very optimistic there are plenty of people within Japan and overseas in US, China, HK, Taiwan, Europe, anywhere, once they understand the aspirations of the Okinawan People and my own Global Peace initiative, they will see this as a very worthy cause to support.
So Gov Nakaima is still useful. He is not to be discarded. He can also persuade other LDP members in Okinawa to become independent members and forget about dependency on Tokyo. This will especially be so when they see massive amount of money flowing into Okinawa Independence funds to help take care of their basic needs of own self survival with no need to depend on Tokyo. Seriously as I said, politics is dirty, so I suspect many LDP members in Okinawa are LDP not because they think it is good for Okinawa, but because they think by being LDP members, they have a safer way to take care of their own personal needs. Simply put, these may not be honest politicians, they only look out for themselves but they can become useful for Okinawa Independence, just like Gov Nakaima.
Independence piggyback activists: Much to my dismay, I notice some Okinawan independence activists being used by outside forces who have their own independence agenda separate from Okinawans. I will not name names here, but what this do by having outside parties show up in Okinawan independence rally is it damage the movement. Remember funding is a necessary part of independence movement and whatever small gains these Okinawans activists have from the outside supporters perhaps they make a small donation to help them, they cause far more harm than good.
Okinawan independence movement must be done in a pristine environment, no outsider activists representing other organizations should ever be allowed to taint the Okinawan effort. Just one photo of outside forces mixed in among the Okinawans can affect greatly the perception of potential donors.
I urge Okinawans to try to sway Governor Nakaima and use his clout to increase the Okinawa Independence Head Count. Being very visible to Okinawans, his action will suddenly increase the amount of Okinawans showing up in support for independence. Being practical is more important than idealistic pursuit. Independence activists are probably mostly not into politics and may not have pragmatic viewpoints. In my various posts, I urge pragmatism, especially relating to China so everybody wins except bad bad Tokyo!
「和訳版」Killing Three Bird With One Stone 一石で三鳥を落とす
「和訳版」Killing Three Bird With One Stone
一石で三鳥を落とす
沖縄独立運動を支援することによって、平和を保つことができる、日本が、尖閣をめぐる中国との戦争をそそのかし、企むことができなくなるからだ、那覇や石垣の空軍基地や港を戦争の足がかりとして使えなくなるからだ。
私は、基地の撤去を要求している人たちに指摘したいのだが、彼らは戦争のカウントダウンがわかっていない、さらに、空軍基地を九州やグアムなどへ移せば、その地理的不利によって、日米は突然大人しくなるということも。
それが、自衛隊の空軍基地を沖縄から撤去すれば、日本はすぐに大人しくなるということの理由であり、これによって、「交渉すべきことは何もない」という傲慢な態度に代えて、中国との交渉の機会を作れるようになるということだ。
沖縄の人たちが文化を保存し、経済を改善するための運命を取り戻すことについて、あなたは絶対に支持するだろう。
自由になるんだ、絶対に自由になる！
辺野古沖のジュゴンの保護についても、あなたは絶対に支持するだろう。
そう、このページの冒頭にあるように、彼らは沖縄の「海のパンダちゃん」。
一石で三鳥を落とす
沖縄独立運動を支援することによって、平和を保つことができる、日本が、尖閣をめぐる中国との戦争をそそのかし、企むことができなくなるからだ、那覇や石垣の空軍基地や港を戦争の足がかりとして使えなくなるからだ。
私は、基地の撤去を要求している人たちに指摘したいのだが、彼らは戦争のカウントダウンがわかっていない、さらに、空軍基地を九州やグアムなどへ移せば、その地理的不利によって、日米は突然大人しくなるということも。
それが、自衛隊の空軍基地を沖縄から撤去すれば、日本はすぐに大人しくなるということの理由であり、これによって、「交渉すべきことは何もない」という傲慢な態度に代えて、中国との交渉の機会を作れるようになるということだ。
沖縄の人たちが文化を保存し、経済を改善するための運命を取り戻すことについて、あなたは絶対に支持するだろう。
自由になるんだ、絶対に自由になる！
辺野古沖のジュゴンの保護についても、あなたは絶対に支持するだろう。
そう、このページの冒頭にあるように、彼らは沖縄の「海のパンダちゃん」。
The Chinese Hypersonic WU-14 Glide Missile Game Changer In Forcing Jeitai Airbase, US Out Of Henoko, Kadena Okinawa
War Game Simulation: There is nothing written here that is not imagined by Pentagon war planners. I just try to show the What If scenario that the military brass knows and they plan their policies accordingly.
This is a scenario that is purely speculative now. The reason I put this out now is to give hope to Okinawans that US will withdraw from Okinawa or at least reduce massively her presence there over the next few years because of the difficulty to protect her bases in Okinawa from Chinese attack.
As I said, one need to think like a military man in order understand why US and Japan insist in having their bases in Okinawa. Japanese forces in Naha and Ishigaki. That is why I have being emphasizing all along, forcing these forces out of Okinawa will increase chance for Global Peace when US and Japan are defanged, they are less likely to initiate a war. Please note China does not have a history of starting war, only being a victim of war. In particular Japan with an aggressive WWI & WWII war record, one cannot take a chance with Japanese behavior when under stress from China's constant patrolling around Diaoyu/Senkaku, Japan may choose to become confrontational instead of negotiating. In other words, Japan just don't know when to fold, to capitulate when the reality demands it and instead have the tendency to fight to the death out of silly nationalists attitudes. That is why uncivilize acts like Hara Kiri, Kamikaze only happen in Japanese culture and not from other people.
OK, the hypersonic glide missile weapon from China: this missile is capable of Mach 10 or more and move at unpredictable pattern making it near impossible to intercept. Let's assume China place this missile somewhere off her coast on a nearest island to Okinawa or in a secret location along the coastline. This could well be somewhere off Fujian province coastline or on an airbase near the coast. Let's say this is 720 miles away from Kadena, Okinawa.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WU-14
The Free Beacon said the test made China the third country after the Russian Federation and United States to have successfully tested a hypersonic delivery vehicle able to carry nuclear warheads at a speed above Mach 10 - or 12,359 kilometers per hour (7,675 mph).[3] China is also believed to be developing a hypersonic scramjet version that can be launched from air or ground. Notice it could be even faster than Mach 10, so five minutes from launch to destroy target in Okinawa may be even a bit generous.
Speed of sound is 767 miles per hour, so at Mach 10 min, and closer location, Okinawa may even be hit in five minutes. I am certain Chinese military planners will configure the optimal location to launch the missile to prevent any US or Japanese plane from getting airborne. In war seconds count!
Illustration:
Distance Between Changle and Naha Airport (OKA) is
1097.55 kilometers
681.99 miles
Distance Between Zhangzhou and Naha Airport (OKA) is 1020.78 kilometers
634.29 miles
http://disween.com/zhangzhou-07-cn/OKA
There could be even closer location than this airfield to Okinawa.
Since hypersonic glide missile is ballistic, add say 200 miles to go up and come down at an angle.
Let's say the hypersonic glide missile travels at 7200 miles per hour. This means in 6 minutes only, this missile will be able to hit Kadena Air Base in Okinawa! This will make it near impossible for US jets to take off. Some may be on standby, 24/7 during heightened crisis but most will not, and those that cannot take off will not after the runway is bombed.
This can also be applied to the Japanese airbase in Naha. Some may fly away, but most will not and be damaged at the base.
The only worry is if this hypersonic glide missile is not accurate enough and hit residential areas in Okinawa. War is dirty and collateral damage is to be expected.
China need more Beidou satellites to help navigate with greater precision to attack the air bases. This is forthcoming as China is furiously building up the network of Beidou satellites.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beidou_Navigation_Satellite_System
In the very near future, perhaps a couple of years or so, I think there will be an operational hypersonic glide missile able to attack Okinawa air bases.
This means US military planners will be quacking at their boots and will quietly reconfigure their military plans to move more US bases out of Okinawa.
The Henoko base relocation from Futenma will not mean much in the coming years. It is just a brave face US put up to show a strong posture against China. However I suspect it will be mostly use for drones and other vehicles and equipments that require less US military personnel. US always try to fight a high tech war, less military death the better. So Henoko if it is ever built will have much less US personnel or may just be abandoned given Chinese upcoming overwhelming missile capability to destroy them.
Again I want to remind readers, it is the speed of the missile and how fast the reaction time that affects how a military planner think. If the Pentagon planners see Chinese missiles coming in so very fast at under 7 minutes and at such a speed and angle of attack that makes it near impossible to defend, they will advice the US president to move US bases out of Okinawa.
So Okinawans should THANK China for her threatening missile to help them kick US off Okinawa and kick Japanese airbases out of Naha as well! If Japan refuse to leave or Okinawans don't want to declare independence, then those living in Naha may be in harms way due to potential collateral damage.
Chinese military planners may conduct Short Sharp War to surprise Japan/US to prevent her planes from taking off. Below shows the scenario where surprise may be necessary to prevent planes from taking off.
Default NATO QRA alert time is 15 minutes (in DEFCON 5), although the local CRC can lower that to ten (DEFCON 4), five (DEFCON 3) or even two minutes (DEFCON 2) depending on current state of affairs.
At 5 minutes (DEFCON 3), the engines would be running idle 24/7, at 2 minutes (DEFCON 2) there are pilots in the cockpit 24/7.
Read more: http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/air-force-aviation/how-fast-can-us-air-force-scramble-jets-10863/#ixzz2uV0skbw8
Ballistic Missile Range:https://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/missile/basics.htm
Short-Range Ballistic missile SRBM up to 1000 kilometers
However, GPS has significant application for an TBM outfitted with a post-boost vehicle (bus) or attitude control module that navigates a reentry vehicle to a more accurate trajectory.
More Beidou is key to accuracy
Chinese hypersonic glide missile WU 14 when used against Okinawa targets probably Theatre Ballistic Missile type with distance as short as 186 miles and fly lower than ICBM. So it seems if China can find a spot outside 200 miles EEZ off Okinawa, this missile can fly even faster to reach target. See photo in space.com web link.
At altitudes above 120 km (75 mi), atmospheric density is generally insufficient to cause the onset of ablation.
http://www.space.com/19601-how-intercontinental-ballistic-missiles-work-infographic.html This site offer range example TBM that is what the hypersonic glide missile will be used in this category.
This is a scenario that is purely speculative now. The reason I put this out now is to give hope to Okinawans that US will withdraw from Okinawa or at least reduce massively her presence there over the next few years because of the difficulty to protect her bases in Okinawa from Chinese attack.
As I said, one need to think like a military man in order understand why US and Japan insist in having their bases in Okinawa. Japanese forces in Naha and Ishigaki. That is why I have being emphasizing all along, forcing these forces out of Okinawa will increase chance for Global Peace when US and Japan are defanged, they are less likely to initiate a war. Please note China does not have a history of starting war, only being a victim of war. In particular Japan with an aggressive WWI & WWII war record, one cannot take a chance with Japanese behavior when under stress from China's constant patrolling around Diaoyu/Senkaku, Japan may choose to become confrontational instead of negotiating. In other words, Japan just don't know when to fold, to capitulate when the reality demands it and instead have the tendency to fight to the death out of silly nationalists attitudes. That is why uncivilize acts like Hara Kiri, Kamikaze only happen in Japanese culture and not from other people.
OK, the hypersonic glide missile weapon from China: this missile is capable of Mach 10 or more and move at unpredictable pattern making it near impossible to intercept. Let's assume China place this missile somewhere off her coast on a nearest island to Okinawa or in a secret location along the coastline. This could well be somewhere off Fujian province coastline or on an airbase near the coast. Let's say this is 720 miles away from Kadena, Okinawa.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WU-14
The Free Beacon said the test made China the third country after the Russian Federation and United States to have successfully tested a hypersonic delivery vehicle able to carry nuclear warheads at a speed above Mach 10 - or 12,359 kilometers per hour (7,675 mph).[3] China is also believed to be developing a hypersonic scramjet version that can be launched from air or ground. Notice it could be even faster than Mach 10, so five minutes from launch to destroy target in Okinawa may be even a bit generous.
Speed of sound is 767 miles per hour, so at Mach 10 min, and closer location, Okinawa may even be hit in five minutes. I am certain Chinese military planners will configure the optimal location to launch the missile to prevent any US or Japanese plane from getting airborne. In war seconds count!
Illustration:
Distance Between Changle and Naha Airport (OKA) is
1097.55 kilometers
681.99 miles
Distance Between Zhangzhou and Naha Airport (OKA) is 1020.78 kilometers
634.29 miles
http://disween.com/zhangzhou-07-cn/OKA
There could be even closer location than this airfield to Okinawa.
Since hypersonic glide missile is ballistic, add say 200 miles to go up and come down at an angle.
Let's say the hypersonic glide missile travels at 7200 miles per hour. This means in 6 minutes only, this missile will be able to hit Kadena Air Base in Okinawa! This will make it near impossible for US jets to take off. Some may be on standby, 24/7 during heightened crisis but most will not, and those that cannot take off will not after the runway is bombed.
This can also be applied to the Japanese airbase in Naha. Some may fly away, but most will not and be damaged at the base.
The only worry is if this hypersonic glide missile is not accurate enough and hit residential areas in Okinawa. War is dirty and collateral damage is to be expected.
China need more Beidou satellites to help navigate with greater precision to attack the air bases. This is forthcoming as China is furiously building up the network of Beidou satellites.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beidou_Navigation_Satellite_System
In the very near future, perhaps a couple of years or so, I think there will be an operational hypersonic glide missile able to attack Okinawa air bases.
This means US military planners will be quacking at their boots and will quietly reconfigure their military plans to move more US bases out of Okinawa.
The Henoko base relocation from Futenma will not mean much in the coming years. It is just a brave face US put up to show a strong posture against China. However I suspect it will be mostly use for drones and other vehicles and equipments that require less US military personnel. US always try to fight a high tech war, less military death the better. So Henoko if it is ever built will have much less US personnel or may just be abandoned given Chinese upcoming overwhelming missile capability to destroy them.
Again I want to remind readers, it is the speed of the missile and how fast the reaction time that affects how a military planner think. If the Pentagon planners see Chinese missiles coming in so very fast at under 7 minutes and at such a speed and angle of attack that makes it near impossible to defend, they will advice the US president to move US bases out of Okinawa.
So Okinawans should THANK China for her threatening missile to help them kick US off Okinawa and kick Japanese airbases out of Naha as well! If Japan refuse to leave or Okinawans don't want to declare independence, then those living in Naha may be in harms way due to potential collateral damage.
Chinese military planners may conduct Short Sharp War to surprise Japan/US to prevent her planes from taking off. Below shows the scenario where surprise may be necessary to prevent planes from taking off.
Default NATO QRA alert time is 15 minutes (in DEFCON 5), although the local CRC can lower that to ten (DEFCON 4), five (DEFCON 3) or even two minutes (DEFCON 2) depending on current state of affairs.
At 5 minutes (DEFCON 3), the engines would be running idle 24/7, at 2 minutes (DEFCON 2) there are pilots in the cockpit 24/7.
Read more: http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/air-force-aviation/how-fast-can-us-air-force-scramble-jets-10863/#ixzz2uV0skbw8
Ballistic Missile Range:https://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/missile/basics.htm
Short-Range Ballistic missile SRBM up to 1000 kilometers
However, GPS has significant application for an TBM outfitted with a post-boost vehicle (bus) or attitude control module that navigates a reentry vehicle to a more accurate trajectory.
More Beidou is key to accuracy
Chinese hypersonic glide missile WU 14 when used against Okinawa targets probably Theatre Ballistic Missile type with distance as short as 186 miles and fly lower than ICBM. So it seems if China can find a spot outside 200 miles EEZ off Okinawa, this missile can fly even faster to reach target. See photo in space.com web link.
At altitudes above 120 km (75 mi), atmospheric density is generally insufficient to cause the onset of ablation.
http://www.space.com/19601-how-intercontinental-ballistic-missiles-work-infographic.html This site offer range example TBM that is what the hypersonic glide missile will be used in this category.
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